Daily Forex Forecast

Every night our AI builds a trade plan for every market that offers one — entry, stop, two targets, with the reward-to-risk and what the plan is worth on average per unit risked in plain sight; pairs it reads as directionless get a range instead. Then the market judges it: every plan is checked against real candles and published again, win or lose. And the rollover hour, when spreads blow out and stops get hit for nothing, stays outside the plan on purpose.

Forecast generated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 Forecast for: Friday, 18 September 2026 Plan window: Thu 23:00 – Fri 20:00 UTC Stop hit on about 2 in 10 plans · verified record

Archive 2026-09-17

Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

Reading guide: This overview provides a general outlook of market conditions expected for the next 24 hours of trading. It describes the overall sentiment of forex markets, the expected volatility level, key events to monitor, and the currency pairs presenting the best trading opportunities according to our artificial intelligence.

General Outlook

The hawkish Fed hike has left the dollar bid across the board while the kiwi is the weakest leg and the Aussie the firmest on RBA hike bets, so the book expresses three themes: long USD (NZDUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD), short NZD (NZDUSD, AUDNZD, EURNZD) and long AUD / short CHF (AUDCHF, AUDCAD, EURCHF). The entire yen complex is untradeable with the BOJ decision, statement and press conference inside the window and a hike widely expected, so seven crosses are neutral by rule rather than by view. Sterling is left flat: UK Retail Sales sits in the window and the GBP pairs' levels do not pay 1:1 against an honest stop.

Volatility Forecast

Medium

Key Events to Monitor

JPY BOJ Policy Rate and Statement at 22:30 NY Thu, press conference 01:30 NY Fri - a hike is widely expected and every yen cross is neutral
AUD RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 19:30 NY Thu, with RBA hike bets underpinning the long-AUD plans
GBP Retail Sales m/m at 02:00 NY (forecast -0.2%) and EUR Lagarde at 06:30 NY, both medium impact
Technical triggers: NZDUSD break of 0.57034, USDCHF push through 0.82639, AUDNZD holding 1.23712

Best Opportunities

USDCHF Bullish

NZDUSD Bearish

AUDNZD Bullish

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

Trading with these forecasts: The Top 3 are the pairs the model singles out as the best of the session, kept only when what the plan is worth — the odds of the target, the reward-to-risk and the share of plans that run out of time, read together — is positive; if fewer than three clear that bar, the list is shorter — sometimes empty. Each forecast carries an entry, a stop loss and two targets, so the whole plan is on the table before you decide. No plan is published below 1:1: if no real level on the chart offers at least as much reward as risk, the pair is published as Neutral instead. The whole chain is ours — our AI generates the plan, our own geometry rules validate every level server-side, and our verification republishes the outcome win or lose — and the same feed powers the MT5 Trade Panel. On the verified record when these plans were written (226 filled plans), 10% hit the target, 22% hit the stop and 68% timed out at the window close: that is the mix behind the expected result shown on each plan.

USDCHF

Bullish High Confidence

R/R 1:1.05

Expected result +0.13 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.82370 Buy limit

Stop Loss 0.82115 (25.5 pips)

Conservative Target 0.82639 (26.9 pips)

Optimal Target 0.83000 (63.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.82639 0.83000 0.83400

Support: 0.82226 0.81870 0.81644

Rationale

Cleanest uptrend on the board with 70% of retail short into the hawkish-Fed dollar bid; 0.5 ATR stop under the 0.82226 pivot. Shallow 0.11 ATR entry because the close held mid-range.

Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail

NZDUSD

Bearish High Confidence

R/R 1:1.14

Expected result +0.14 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.57335 Sell limit

Stop Loss 0.57600 (26.5 pips)

Conservative Target 0.57034 (30.1 pips)

Optimal Target 0.56723 (61.2 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.57508 0.57727 0.58135

Support: 0.57096 0.57034 0.56723

Rationale

Weakest dollar pair with no higher high in three weeks and 78% of retail long into fresh cycle lows. Stop above the 0.57508 bounce high that died well below the prior open.

Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail

AUDNZD

Bullish High Confidence

R/R 1:1.56

Expected result +0.15 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 1.24000 Buy limit

Stop Loss 1.23680 (32.0 pips)

Conservative Target 1.24500 (50.0 pips)

Optimal Target 1.25000 (100.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.24232 1.24500 1.25000

Support: 1.23712 1.23562 1.23013

Rationale

The board's clearest relative-strength trade: AUD firm on RBA hike bets against a kiwi at cycle lows, 78% of retail short. RSI 78 caps confidence, so the entry stays shallow above the 1.23712 support that guards the stop.

Full AUDNZD analysis Sentiment detail

These plans can go straight onto your chart. The Trade Panel EA reads this same forecast inside MetaTrader 5 — entry, stop and both targets — and prefills the pending order at the published price, so the trade you place is the one measured on this page. The Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws the plan on the chart of that market, with stop and target you can drag. It is available now — one license covers both panels. New to trade panels? How an MT5 trade panel places these plans.

Discover the Trade Panel EA

Complete Forecasts

Using the forecast table: This table shows forecasts for all major forex pairs. Use the filter controls to focus on specific directions (bullish, bearish, neutral) or confidence levels. Each forecast includes the expected direction, entry levels, stop loss and targets, the reward-to-risk ratio and the expected result it is worth per unit of risk. Click on a row to view additional details for that currency pair.

Pair	Direction	Confidence	Analysis Price	Entry	Stop Loss	Target	Expected result	Risk:Reward	Result
USDCAD	Bullish	Medium	1.39930	1.39870Buy limit	1.39580	1.40804	+0.24R	1:3.22	+0.17RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.24R Analysis Price 1.39930 Entry Point 1.39870 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.39580 Conservative Target 1.40804 Risk:Reward 1:3.22 Optimal Target 1.41289 Stop Loss Distance 29.0 pips Target Distance 93.4 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.40016 1.40804 1.41289 Support: 1.39737 1.39153 1.38722 Rationale Range breakout held with a tight inside day and 69% of retail short; 1.40016 is too close to pay for the stop, so 1.40804 is the first 1:1 target. Stop 0.5 ATR under the 1.39737 support. Full USDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
EURNZD	Bullish	Medium	2.00491	2.00380Buy limit	1.99800	2.01205	+0.15R	1:1.42	+0.46RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.15R Analysis Price 2.00491 Entry Point 2.00380 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.99800 Conservative Target 2.01205 Risk:Reward 1:1.42 Optimal Target 2.02375 Stop Loss Distance 58.0 pips Target Distance 82.5 pips Key Levels Resistance: 2.01118 2.01205 2.02375 Support: 2.00005 1.99852 1.99220 Rationale One-way climb since 21 August with 2.0000 converted to support and 69% of retail short; stop 0.5 ATR below, under the 1.99852 shelf. Lagarde at 06:30 NY keeps confidence at medium. Full EURNZD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDNZD	Bullish	High	1.24064	1.24000Buy limit	1.23680	1.24500	+0.15R	1:1.56	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.15R Analysis Price 1.24064 Entry Point 1.24000 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.23680 Conservative Target 1.24500 Risk:Reward 1:1.56 Optimal Target 1.25000 Stop Loss Distance 32.0 pips Target Distance 50.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.24232 1.24500 1.25000 Support: 1.23712 1.23562 1.23013 Rationale The board's clearest relative-strength trade: AUD firm on RBA hike bets against a kiwi at cycle lows, 78% of retail short. RSI 78 caps confidence, so the entry stays shallow above the 1.23712 support that guards the stop. Full AUDNZD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDUSD	Bearish	High	0.57286	0.57335Sell limit	0.57600	0.57034	+0.14R	1:1.14	+0.34RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.14R Analysis Price 0.57286 Entry Point 0.57335 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.57600 Conservative Target 0.57034 Risk:Reward 1:1.14 Optimal Target 0.56723 Stop Loss Distance 26.5 pips Target Distance 30.1 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.57508 0.57727 0.58135 Support: 0.57096 0.57034 0.56723 Rationale Weakest dollar pair with no higher high in three weeks and 78% of retail long into fresh cycle lows. Stop above the 0.57508 bounce high that died well below the prior open. Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
EURCHF	Bullish	High	0.94618	0.94580Buy limit	0.94410	0.94790	+0.14R	1:1.24	-1.00RStop hit
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.14R Analysis Price 0.94618 Entry Point 0.94580 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.94410 Conservative Target 0.94790 Risk:Reward 1:1.24 Optimal Target 0.95000 Stop Loss Distance 17.0 pips Target Distance 21.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.94743 0.94790 0.95000 Support: 0.94541 0.94372 0.94222 Rationale Relentless grind of higher lows above 0.94222 with 78% of retail offside short; 0.5 ATR stop under the 0.94541 pivot. Lagarde at 06:30 NY is the medium-impact caveat. Full EURCHF analysis Sentiment detail
USDCHF	Bullish	High	0.82426	0.82370Buy limit	0.82115	0.82639	+0.13R	1:1.05	-0.70RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.13R Analysis Price 0.82426 Entry Point 0.82370 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.82115 Conservative Target 0.82639 Risk:Reward 1:1.05 Optimal Target 0.83000 Stop Loss Distance 25.5 pips Target Distance 26.9 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.82639 0.83000 0.83400 Support: 0.82226 0.81870 0.81644 Rationale Cleanest uptrend on the board with 70% of retail short into the hawkish-Fed dollar bid; 0.5 ATR stop under the 0.82226 pivot. Shallow 0.11 ATR entry because the close held mid-range. Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCHF	Bullish	High	0.58632	0.58585Buy limit	0.58420	0.58752	+0.10R	1:1.01	-0.08RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.10R Analysis Price 0.58632 Entry Point 0.58585 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.58420 Conservative Target 0.58752 Risk:Reward 1:1.01 Optimal Target 0.59000 Stop Loss Distance 16.5 pips Target Distance 16.7 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.58752 0.59000 0.59200 Support: 0.58482 0.58312 0.58122 Rationale Most extreme positioning on the board at 85% retail short into a new cycle high, with 0.58122-0.58181 twice defended. Stop 0.5 ATR below the 0.58482 support; RBA Bullock at 19:30 NY is a supportive-to-neutral risk. Full AUDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCAD	Bullish	Medium	0.99522	0.99470Buy limit	0.99050	0.99911	+0.09R	1:1.05	+0.55RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.09R Analysis Price 0.99522 Entry Point 0.99470 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.99050 Conservative Target 0.99911 Risk:Reward 1:1.05 Optimal Target 1.00000 Stop Loss Distance 42.0 pips Target Distance 44.1 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.99629 0.99786 0.99911 Support: 0.99092 0.98966 0.98918 Rationale Hard rebound off 0.99092 closed in the upper half of the two-week range with 67% of retail short. Stop sits under the 0.99092 range floor, targeting the 0.99911/1.0000 band. Full AUDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
EURUSD	Neutral	Low	1.14785	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.14785 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.14978 1.15486 1.15809 Support: 1.14560 1.13911 1.13774 Rationale Dollar theme already carried by NZDUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD; Lagarde speaks at 06:30 NY. Redundant rather than wrong. Full EURUSD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPUSD	Neutral	Low	1.33546	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.33546 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.34063 1.34517 1.34976 Support: 1.33423 1.33364 1.33221 Rationale No listed support reaches 1:1 against a stop beyond 1.34063 resistance. GBP Retail Sales at 02:00 NY also sits in the window. Full GBPUSD analysis Sentiment detail
USDJPY	Neutral	Low	155.973	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 155.973 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 156.415 158.210 159.780 Support: 155.339 155.227 154.837 Rationale BOJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement at 22:30 NY plus the 01:30 NY press conference fall inside the window. High-impact JPY event: no directional plan. Full USDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
AUDUSD	Neutral	Low	0.71115	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.71115 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.71262 0.71294 0.71413 Support: 0.70836 0.70749 0.70668 Rationale Low-conviction short (57%) fights the long-AUD theme carried by AUDNZD, AUDCHF and AUDCAD, with RBA Bullock speaking 19:30 NY. Full AUDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
EURGBP	Neutral	Low	0.85940	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.85940 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.86039 0.86078 0.86515 Support: 0.85707 0.85616 0.85528 Rationale No resistance reaches 1:1 within 2 ATR of a stop beyond 0.85707. UK Retail Sales 02:00 NY and Lagarde 06:30 NY both hit this cross. Full EURGBP analysis Sentiment detail
EURJPY	Neutral	Low	179.052	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 179.052 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 179.350 179.540 181.138 Support: 178.475 177.885 177.850 Rationale BOJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement at 22:30 NY plus the 01:30 NY press conference fall inside the window. High-impact JPY event: no directional plan. Full EURJPY analysis Sentiment detail
EURAUD	Neutral	Low	1.61384	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.61384 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.61850 1.62042 1.62275 Support: 1.61172 1.60885 1.60813 Rationale Bearish bias is a long-AUD expression and the AUD cap is filled by AUDNZD, AUDCHF and AUDCAD. Full EURAUD analysis Sentiment detail
EURCAD	Neutral	Low	1.60603	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.60603 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.60730 1.60922 1.61184 Support: 1.60471 1.60306 1.60082 Rationale RSI 46.9 and a zero MACD histogram confirm no directional energy inside 1.6001-1.6118. Full EURCAD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPJPY	Neutral	Low	208.320	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 208.320 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 209.114 209.475 211.221 Support: 207.871 207.297 207.200 Rationale BOJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement at 22:30 NY plus the 01:30 NY press conference fall inside the window. High-impact JPY event: no directional plan. Full GBPJPY analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCHF	Neutral	Low	1.10085	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.10085 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.10565 1.10666 1.11000 Support: 1.09904 1.09799 1.09473 Rationale Low-conviction range trade and CHF-short exposure is already capped by USDCHF, EURCHF and AUDCHF. Full GBPCHF analysis Sentiment detail
GBPAUD	Neutral	Low	1.87760	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.87760 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.88470 1.88846 1.89234 Support: 1.87548 1.87331 1.87320 Rationale No support reaches 1:1 against a stop beyond the 1.8847 resistance; the AUD leg is already expressed in AUDNZD, AUDCHF and AUDCAD. Full GBPAUD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCAD	Neutral	Low	1.86870	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.86870 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.87585 1.87890 1.88522 Support: 1.86610 1.86493 1.86074 Rationale Only 1.86074 clears the stop distance and no further level lies beyond it; UK Retail Sales at 02:00 NY adds event risk. Full GBPCAD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPNZD	Neutral	Low	2.33247	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 2.33247 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.34232 2.34897 2.35412 Support: 2.33172 2.32640 2.31554 Rationale Short-NZD theme already at its cap in NZDUSD, AUDNZD and EURNZD; cleaner expressions chosen there. Full GBPNZD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDJPY	Neutral	Low	110.931	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 110.931 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 111.023 111.508 112.630 Support: 110.764 110.509 110.029 Rationale BOJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement at 22:30 NY plus the 01:30 NY press conference fall inside the window. High-impact JPY event: no directional plan. Full AUDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CADJPY	Neutral	Low	111.495	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 111.495 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 111.816 112.016 112.613 Support: 111.077 110.803 110.549 Rationale BOJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement at 22:30 NY plus the 01:30 NY press conference fall inside the window. High-impact JPY event: no directional plan. Full CADJPY analysis Sentiment detail
NZDJPY	Neutral	Low	89.328	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 89.328 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 89.565 89.994 90.239 Support: 89.131 88.962 88.500 Rationale BOJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement at 22:30 NY plus the 01:30 NY press conference fall inside the window. High-impact JPY event: no directional plan. Full NZDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CHFJPY	Neutral	Low	189.291	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 189.291 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 189.796 189.970 190.145 Support: 189.087 188.464 187.841 Rationale BOJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement at 22:30 NY plus the 01:30 NY press conference fall inside the window. High-impact JPY event: no directional plan. Full CHFJPY analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCHF	Neutral	Low	0.47199	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.47199 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.47377 0.47534 0.47586 Support: 0.47097 0.47037 0.46985 Rationale Redundant on both legs - NZD shorts and CHF shorts are both at their cap - with ATR only 0.00292. Full NZDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCAD	Neutral	Low	0.80132	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.80132 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.80400 0.80699 0.81192 Support: 0.79936 0.79894 0.79803 Rationale Clean downtrend but redundant with the short-NZD plans in NZDUSD, AUDNZD and EURNZD. Full NZDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
CADCHF	Neutral	Low	0.58912	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.58912 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.59078 0.59200 0.59400 Support: 0.58845 0.58688 0.58538 Rationale CHF-short exposure is capped by USDCHF, EURCHF and AUDCHF; the advance is slow with a flat histogram. Full CADCHF analysis Sentiment detail
XAUUSD	Neutral	Low	4341.42	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 4341.42 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 4381.78 4402.89 4449.63 Support: 4324.83 4311.07 4257.67 Rationale Bias is neutral after an outside reversal day and ATR near 105 means two-way volatility, no trend. No edge in either direction. Full XAUUSD analysis Sentiment detail

Expected result is in R — multiples of what the plan risks. +0.20R on a $100 risk means about $20 back, on average over a long run of plans like it — an estimate, not a result.

Verified record

The three we pick

+$5 average per $100 risked

78 of 117 picks filled, over 39 verified days · target hit 17%

Every plan on the board

−$6 average per $100 risked

325 plans over 39 verified days · target hit 10%

39 verified days is a short record, and neither number is proof yet. On 78 picks the honest range around the +$5 runs from −$12 to +$22 — wide enough to include zero. We publish both figures as they grow, win or lose.

How solid is this, exactly?

What the two numbers are. The board is the whole sheet, all 29 markets, and it includes every plan that did not clear the bar for the Top 3. The Top 3 are the ones declared the evening before, when the forecast is published — not picked afterwards: every one of them is in the dated archive, so you can check any past day yourself. Of 117 picks published, 78 were actually filled; the rest never reached their entry price and are excluded, here as everywhere else.

Why the sample is weaker than the count suggests. 20 of the 78 picks lost the full $100, against 45 that closed above zero — the shape of the record so far. One session accounts for 69% of the Top 3 result, and 26 of the 78 picks were the same underlying bet (long AUD) expressed on different pairs, so they are fewer independent outcomes than they look. The board figure carries its own range, −$14 to +$2, which also includes zero.

What this sample cannot show. That the picks beat the board, and that either of them makes money over time. What it does show is the method: every plan checked against the real candles of its day and republished, whatever it did.

How the 325 plans of the board ended (19 Aug – 12 Oct 2026)

Target hit 10% (34)
Stop hit 24% (78)
Timed out 66% (213)

Every plan is checked against the real market candles of its target day. “Timed out” means the order was still open at the end of the day and is counted at its closing price — not as a loss. 158 plans never reached the entry price, so they are excluded.

See the full breakdown

30% Win rate 34 of 112 plans closed at target or stop

-0.06R Actual average result what the plans really returned, per traded plan, risking the same amount on every one

+0.09R Timed-out average how those 213 orders ended, on average

A high win rate alone doesn’t mean profit: what matters is how much each win and each loss is worth. That is what the number at the top measures.

Win rate by direction

Bullish

22%

14 of 65 plans

Bearish

43%

20 of 47 plans

Win rate by pair

Pair	Win rate	Plans
GBPJPY	75%	3 / 4
EURJPY	67%	2 / 3
NZDJPY	67%	2 / 3
AUDCHF	50%	3 / 6
NZDCAD	50%	2 / 4
AUDUSD	43%	3 / 7
EURUSD	40%	2 / 5
NZDUSD	40%	2 / 5
USDCAD	40%	2 / 5
XAUUSD	33%	1 / 3
GBPUSD	33%	1 / 3
CHFJPY	33%	1 / 3
EURCHF	30%	3 / 10
EURGBP	25%	1 / 4
GBPAUD	25%	1 / 4
EURNZD	25%	1 / 4
USDCHF	25%	1 / 4
USDJPY	25%	1 / 4
AUDJPY	20%	1 / 5
GBPCAD	0%	0 / 6
NZDCHF	0%	0 / 4
AUDCAD	0%	0 / 3
GBPNZD	0%	0 / 3

What each outcome means

Target hit: Price reached the conservative target without touching the stop first, and the minute-by-minute prices of our data feed (bid and ask, the sides a real order fills and closes on) confirm it happened after the order filled; where a day has no complete minute record, the hourly candles take over. A price printed before the entry was reached does not count: there was no position to close.
Stop hit: Price reached the stop before the target. Counts as a loss. When a day touched both levels, the minute prices say which one came first (the hourly candles where the minute record is incomplete) — and a stop can only be hit after the entry filled, never before. In the rare event that both land inside the same minute, the tie goes to the loss.
Timed out: The order was still open when the day ended: it is closed at that day's closing price, so the result can be slightly positive or slightly negative. Not a loss.
Not filled: Price never reached the entry, so the order would never have opened. Excluded from every rate — counting it either way would be inventing a trade that did not exist.
Range held / Range broken: Only for neutral calls, where the forecast says a pair has no direction and publishes no trade. We check whether the day closed inside the levels we published: held if it did, broken if it did not. Neither counts in the statistics, because there was no order to place.

The Result column is in R, multiples of what that plan put at risk: +1.50R means one and a half times the risk, −1R is a full stop loss. It is the same unit as the headline above, which is simply the average R turned into dollars.

Day by day

12 Oct 2026 2 target · 0 stop · 2 timed out $100 → $185

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12070 → 1.11612	Target hit	+1.12R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42470 → 1.42980	Timed out	+0.85R
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56170 → 0.55930	Target hit	+1.09R
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84680 → 0.84474	Not filled	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Bearish	1.60480 → 1.60000	Timed out	+0.36R
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35680 → 2.36646	Not filled	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.24300 → 1.24650	Not filled	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–

9 Oct 2026 1 target · 3 stop · 5 timed out $100 → $84

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12210 → 1.11612	Timed out	+0.61R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83060 → 0.83464	Timed out	-0.23R
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84790 → 0.84613	Target hit	+1.04R
EURJPY	Bearish	177.250 → 176.516	Timed out	-0.04R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Bullish	1.90000 → 1.90693	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35920 → 2.36646	Timed out	-0.18R
AUDJPY	Bearish	110.000 → 109.233	Stop hit	-1.00R
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46650 → 0.46357	Timed out	+0.35R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Bearish	4147.00 → 4066.46	Stop hit	-1.00R

8 Oct 2026 0 target · 0 stop · 7 timed out $100 → $125

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12100 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.08R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83200 → 0.83615	Timed out	-0.21R
AUDUSD	Bearish	0.69710 → 0.69426	Timed out	+0.45R
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93360 → 0.92951	Timed out	+0.35R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Bearish	1.59730 → 1.59058	Timed out	+0.82R
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.24270 → 1.24650	Timed out	-0.18R
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46690 → 0.46515	Timed out	+0.61R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

7 Oct 2026 1 target · 1 stop · 0 timed out $100 → $106

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84862 → 0.84547	Not filled	–
EURJPY	Bearish	178.280 → 177.029	Target hit	+1.12R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88480 → 1.89118	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35780 → 2.36646	Not filled	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Bearish	89.080 → 88.329	Not filled	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCAD	Bearish	0.80000 → 0.79711	Not filled	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

6 Oct 2026 0 target · 3 stop · 4 timed out $100 → $49

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12290 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.50R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42500 → 1.42931	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56080 → 0.55798	Timed out	-0.67R
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84890 → 0.84547	Timed out	+0.35R
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93290 → 0.93018	Stop hit	-1.00R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88400 → 1.88934	Not filled	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35880 → 2.36646	Timed out	+0.25R
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46580 → 0.46330	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

Forecast Methodology

How We Generate Forecasts

Our daily forex forecasts combine technical analysis, sentiment data, algorithmic indicators and artificial intelligence to write one tradable plan per market for the next session — and only where the levels allow one. What each plan is worth is stated as an expected result, and how the plans actually ended is published below.

The forecasting process is structured in four main phases:

Data Collection: We aggregate market data from reliable specialized providers, along with historical data for analysis.
Technical Analysis: We calculate key indicators such as RSI, MACD and ATR and identify significant support and resistance levels on the daily candles.
AI Integration: Our artificial intelligence model reads all of those factors together and writes the plan: entry, stop and two targets, with the levels it is built on.
Verification: every forecast is checked against the real market candles of its target day — target reached, stop hit, still open at the close, or entry never touched — and the full record is published on this page, win or lose.

Since August 2026 the model also receives the week's economic calendar: since 16 September 2026 a pair with a high-impact release on either of its currencies inside the plan window gets no directional plan at all (on the verified record those plans lost 0.35R per filled plan and were stopped half of the time, against a small gain and one stop in six for the rest), medium-impact releases are weighed as gap risk, and the events considered are recorded with each forecast. Since September 2026 it also reads the last 48 hours of our forex news feed and runs a few web searches for the day's macro context (central-bank expectations, intervention warnings, risk events), and the plans are treated as one book: at most three directional plans per currency, the rest set to neutral, so that one adverse headline cannot stop twenty plans that were really a single trade.

Forecasts are generated at 18:30 New York time, ninety minutes after the daily rollover, and cover the trading day that has just opened. Each plan is meant to run until 16:00 New York, an hour before the next rollover: that hour is left out on purpose, because spreads widen so much that a stop can be hit without the market ever moving there. The verification uses the same window.

How to Use These Forecasts

Forecast Components

Direction: The expected price orientation (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) for the next 24 hours
Entry Point: The price the order waits for. Every plan is a limit order — a buy limit for a long, a sell limit for a short — so the entry is a pullback from the price at the time the plan was written, and the numbers above hold whenever you place it.
Stop Loss: The level to limit losses if the market moves contrary to the forecast
Targets: Two price objectives — a conservative one, which is the first real level worth at least as much as the plan risks, and an optimal one further out
Expected Result: What one plan is worth for every unit of risk, over a long run of plans like it — the single number that summarises the plan. Risk $100 on each and +0.20R means about $20 back on average per plan, −0.05R about $5 lost. It weighs three outcomes, not two: the target is reached, the stop is reached, or the order is still open when the window closes and is counted at its closing price — that last case is the majority, and the rate it is priced at comes from the verified record below, not from an assumption. Only plans with a positive expected result, and with target odds above the no-edge baseline, are promoted to the Top 3; when fewer than three clear the bar, the Top 3 is shorter, or empty
Target odds: the model's chance that the conservative target is hit before the stop and before the window closes, once the order fills. It is not shown next to each plan: with three possible outcomes a plan with no edge at all already sits at the no-edge baseline for a 1:1 plan is about 16%, not 50%, so the raw figure means nothing without that baseline printed beside it. The expected result carries the baseline inside, and the rates actually measured on the record are published below
Risk/Reward Ratio: What the plan stands to make against what it risks. Never below 1:1 — a plan that risks more than it can win needs to be right most of the time just to break even

Trading Implementation

Read the expected result, not the reward-to-risk alone: a wide target that is rarely reached can be worth less than a near one, and the expected result is the number that already weighs the two together
Always use the indicated stop losses to manage risk
Consider taking partial profit at the conservative target
Adjust position size based on expected volatility
Monitor key support and resistance levels for potential deviations
Use these forecasts as part of a complete trading strategy, not as the sole decision source

Important: A positive expected result is an estimate over many plans, not a promise about the next one, and no forecast here guarantees future results. These are statistical tools based on historical patterns and current market conditions. Always use appropriate risk management and consider these forecasts as valuable inputs for your trading decisions, not as automatic instructions.

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Background reading

From our blog, on what this page measures.

Trading Expectancy: How to Calculate It Correctly and Improve ItExpectancy measures the average value you can expect per trade. It is the number that explains why a strategy can win mo…Read the article Forex Trade Management After Entry: Breakeven, Trailing, Partial Close, and When to Leave It AloneBreakeven, trailing, partial closes and the daily rollover: what each management tool does to a one-session plan, what i…Read the article Forex Position Sizing: How Much Should You Invest?Position Sizing refers to determining the most suitable investment for a single trade. Deciding to invest 10 euros rathe…Read the article

Daily Forex Forecast

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Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

General Outlook

Volatility Forecast

Key Events to Monitor

Best Opportunities

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

USDCHF

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NZDUSD

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