Daily Forex Forecast

Every night our AI builds a trade plan for every market that offers one — entry, stop, two targets, with the reward-to-risk and what the plan is worth on average per unit risked in plain sight; pairs it reads as directionless get a range instead. Then the market judges it: every plan is checked against real candles and published again, win or lose. And the rollover hour, when spreads blow out and stops get hit for nothing, stays outside the plan on purpose.

Forecast generated: Sunday, 20 September 2026 Forecast for: Monday, 21 September 2026 Plan window: Sun 23:00 – Mon 20:00 UTC Stop hit on about 2 in 10 plans · verified record

Archive 2026-09-20

Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

Reading guide: This overview provides a general outlook of market conditions expected for the next 24 hours of trading. It describes the overall sentiment of forex markets, the expected volatility level, key events to monitor, and the currency pairs presenting the best trading opportunities according to our artificial intelligence.

General Outlook

The dominant macro theme is the post-Fed dollar: the 16 September hike to 3.75-4.00% and a dot plot still pointing to one more move keep USD bid, with EURUSD and GBPUSD through multi-week floors and USDCHF/USDCAD at trend highs. The second theme is the NZD as the board's clear laggard against an extremely crowded 78-82% retail long, with AUD the preferred funding counterpart. The JPY complex is deliberately left flat: the 18 September split-vote BoJ hike drove the synchronised yen sell-off, but reports that the BoJ has room to accelerate hikes, a Japan bank holiday thinning Asian liquidity and intervention-sensitive 158-160 in USDJPY make those unconfirmed breakouts (negative MACD histograms) a two-way bet, not a theme. The book therefore expresses: long USD, short NZD, long AUD, short CHF - capped at three plans each.

Volatility Forecast

Medium

Key Events to Monitor

EUR: ECB President Lagarde speaks 11:00 NY (Medium) - the only scheduled euro risk in the window; economists look to December for the next ECB hike
CAD: BOC Gov Macklem speaks 11:05 NY (Medium), five minutes after Lagarde - headline risk for USDCAD and NZDCAD into the NY afternoon
JPY: Japan bank holiday from Sun 19:00 NY - thin Asian liquidity; after the 18 Sep BoJ hike and talk of faster tightening, USDJPY 158-160 remains intervention-sensitive, so all yen crosses are neutral
USD: post-hike dollar continuation - watch USDCHF acceptance above 0.82593/0.82639 and USDCAD through 1.40139 toward 1.40804

Best Opportunities

USDCAD Bullish

NZDUSD Bearish

USDCHF Bullish

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

Trading with these forecasts: The Top 3 are the pairs the model singles out as the best of the session, kept only when what the plan is worth — the odds of the target, the reward-to-risk and the share of plans that run out of time, read together — is positive; if fewer than three clear that bar, the list is shorter — sometimes empty. Each forecast carries an entry, a stop loss and two targets, so the whole plan is on the table before you decide. No plan is published below 1:1: if no real level on the chart offers at least as much reward as risk, the pair is published as Neutral instead. The whole chain is ours — our AI generates the plan, our own geometry rules validate every level server-side, and our verification republishes the outcome win or lose — and the same feed powers the MT5 Trade Panel. On the verified record when these plans were written (237 filled plans), 9% hit the target, 22% hit the stop and 68% timed out at the window close: that is the mix behind the expected result shown on each plan.

USDCAD

Bullish High Confidence

R/R 1:1.20

Expected result +0.14 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 1.39800 Buy limit

Stop Loss 1.39517 (28.3 pips)

Conservative Target 1.40139 (33.9 pips)

Optimal Target 1.40804 (100.4 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.40139 1.40804 1.41289

Support: 1.39766 1.39153 1.38649

Rationale

Six higher closes and a three-session base above 1.39737 with retail a crowded 72% short, the strongest contrarian support on the board for a long. Volatility stop of 0.5 ATR under the base rather than stretching to 1.39153; Macklem speaks 11:05 NY, a medium headline risk.

Full USDCAD analysis Sentiment detail

NZDUSD

Bearish High Confidence

R/R 1:1.03

Expected result +0.13 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.57270 Sell limit

Stop Loss 0.57499 (22.9 pips)

Conservative Target 0.57034 (23.6 pips)

Optimal Target 0.56723 (54.7 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.57271 0.57401 0.57727

Support: 0.57063 0.57034 0.56723

Rationale

Kiwi is the laggard with RSI 31.4, every bounce dying below the prior high and retail stacked 79% long into a post-hike dollar. Sell limit at the 0.57271 pivot, 0.5 ATR volatility stop above the 0.57401 lower high.

Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail

USDCHF

Bullish High Confidence

R/R 1:1.59

Expected result +0.18 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.82180 Buy limit

Stop Loss 0.81920 (26.0 pips)

Conservative Target 0.82593 (41.3 pips)

Optimal Target 0.83000 (82.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.82593 0.82639 0.83000

Support: 0.82166 0.81951 0.81668

Rationale

Cleanest expression of the post-Fed dollar: unbroken higher lows, RSI 63 without exhaustion and 63% retail short fighting it. Stop 0.52 ATR below entry, just under the 0.81951 higher-low line; entry only 0.08 ATR back as the shelf is tight.

Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail

These plans can go straight onto your chart. The Trade Panel EA reads this same forecast inside MetaTrader 5 — entry, stop and both targets — and prefills the pending order at the published price, so the trade you place is the one measured on this page. The Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws the plan on the chart of that market, with stop and target you can drag. It is available now — one license covers both panels. New to trade panels? How an MT5 trade panel places these plans.

Discover the Trade Panel EA

Complete Forecasts

Using the forecast table: This table shows forecasts for all major forex pairs. Use the filter controls to focus on specific directions (bullish, bearish, neutral) or confidence levels. Each forecast includes the expected direction, entry levels, stop loss and targets, the reward-to-risk ratio and the expected result it is worth per unit of risk. Click on a row to view additional details for that currency pair.

Pair	Direction	Confidence	Analysis Price	Entry	Stop Loss	Target	Expected result	Risk:Reward	Result
USDCHF	Bullish	High	0.82221	0.82180Buy limit	0.81920	0.82593	+0.18R	1:1.59	-0.25RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.18R Analysis Price 0.82221 Entry Point 0.82180 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.81920 Conservative Target 0.82593 Risk:Reward 1:1.59 Optimal Target 0.83000 Stop Loss Distance 26.0 pips Target Distance 41.3 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.82593 0.82639 0.83000 Support: 0.82166 0.81951 0.81668 Rationale Cleanest expression of the post-Fed dollar: unbroken higher lows, RSI 63 without exhaustion and 63% retail short fighting it. Stop 0.52 ATR below entry, just under the 0.81951 higher-low line; entry only 0.08 ATR back as the shelf is tight. Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
USDCAD	Bullish	High	1.39859	1.39800Buy limit	1.39517	1.40139	+0.14R	1:1.20	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.14R Analysis Price 1.39859 Entry Point 1.39800 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.39517 Conservative Target 1.40139 Risk:Reward 1:1.20 Optimal Target 1.40804 Stop Loss Distance 28.3 pips Target Distance 33.9 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.40139 1.40804 1.41289 Support: 1.39766 1.39153 1.38649 Rationale Six higher closes and a three-session base above 1.39737 with retail a crowded 72% short, the strongest contrarian support on the board for a long. Volatility stop of 0.5 ATR under the base rather than stretching to 1.39153; Macklem speaks 11:05 NY, a medium headline risk. Full USDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDUSD	Bearish	High	0.57230	0.57270Sell limit	0.57499	0.57034	+0.13R	1:1.03	+0.48RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.13R Analysis Price 0.57230 Entry Point 0.57270 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.57499 Conservative Target 0.57034 Risk:Reward 1:1.03 Optimal Target 0.56723 Stop Loss Distance 22.9 pips Target Distance 23.6 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.57271 0.57401 0.57727 Support: 0.57063 0.57034 0.56723 Rationale Kiwi is the laggard with RSI 31.4, every bounce dying below the prior high and retail stacked 79% long into a post-hike dollar. Sell limit at the 0.57271 pivot, 0.5 ATR volatility stop above the 0.57401 lower high. Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPAUD	Bearish	Medium	1.87998	1.88090Sell limit	1.88520	1.87548	+0.13R	1:1.26	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.13R Analysis Price 1.87998 Entry Point 1.88090 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 1.88520 Conservative Target 1.87548 Risk:Reward 1:1.26 Optimal Target 1.87320 Stop Loss Distance 43.0 pips Target Distance 54.2 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.88149 1.88908 1.89510 Support: 1.87548 1.87351 1.87320 Rationale Failure at 1.89510 and a 135-point dump back to the 1.8732 base, with retail the most crowded long on the board at 80% - the cleanest short-GBP/long-AUD expression. Sell limit at the 1.88149 lower high, 0.52 ATR stop above it. Full GBPAUD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCHF	Bullish	Medium	0.58573	0.58540Buy limit	0.58375	0.58751	+0.13R	1:1.28	-0.50RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.13R Analysis Price 0.58573 Entry Point 0.58540 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.58375 Conservative Target 0.58751 Risk:Reward 1:1.28 Optimal Target 0.58819 Stop Loss Distance 16.5 pips Target Distance 21.1 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.58583 0.58751 0.58819 Support: 0.58520 0.58312 0.58122 Rationale Fresh 0.58819 high with retail 82% short, one of the most crowded and offside books here, expressing long AUD against a soft CHF. Shallow 0.10 ATR entry as the drift is narrow; 0.51 ATR volatility stop just under the 0.5852 shelf. Full AUDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
EURCHF	Bullish	Low	0.94478	0.94440Buy limit	0.94255	0.94743	+0.11R	1:1.64	-1.00RStop hit
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.11R Analysis Price 0.94478 Entry Point 0.94440 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.94255 Conservative Target 0.94743 Risk:Reward 1:1.64 Optimal Target 0.95000 Stop Loss Distance 18.5 pips Target Distance 30.3 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.94743 0.94791 0.95000 Support: 0.94372 0.94222 0.93973 Rationale Grinding uptrend with 73% retail short arguing against a sustained break lower, and the 0.94372 shelf has held every dip. Low confidence because thrust is fading (flat MACD) and Lagarde speaks at 11:00 NY; 0.54 ATR volatility stop under 0.94372. Full EURCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDNZD	Bullish	Medium	1.24484	1.24410Buy limit	1.23900	1.25000	+0.11R	1:1.16	+0.27RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.11R Analysis Price 1.24484 Entry Point 1.24410 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.23900 Conservative Target 1.25000 Risk:Reward 1:1.16 Optimal Target 1.25500 Stop Loss Distance 51.0 pips Target Distance 59.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.24770 1.25000 1.25500 Support: 1.23986 1.23712 1.23013 Rationale Cleanest trend on the board with every dip bought and 82% retail short fuelling the squeeze; RSI 80.5 argues for shallow pauses, so the entry sits only 0.12 ATR back. Stop 0.84 ATR below, under the 1.23986 higher low. Full AUDNZD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCAD	Bearish	High	0.80036	0.80090Sell limit	0.80360	0.79803	+0.11R	1:1.06	-0.47RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.11R Analysis Price 0.80036 Entry Point 0.80090 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.80360 Conservative Target 0.79803 Risk:Reward 1:1.06 Optimal Target 0.79500 Stop Loss Distance 27.0 pips Target Distance 28.7 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.80253 0.80401 0.80699 Support: 0.79936 0.79920 0.79803 Rationale Third test of the 0.79803-0.79936 floor in four sessions with each bounce shorter and retail an extreme 82% long, pairing the weakest currency against the strongest non-USD one. Stop 0.53 ATR above entry, beyond the 0.80253 lower high; Macklem speaks 11:05 NY. Full NZDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
CADCHF	Neutral	Low	0.58787	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.58787 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.58805 0.58993 0.59078 Support: 0.58722 0.58646 0.58475 Rationale Neutral by the concentration rule: the short CHF theme is already carried by USDCHF, EURCHF, AUDCHF. Uptrend intact above the 0.58646-0.58722 shelf that has contained every dip since 10 September, but momentum is flat and retail gives no signal, hence low confidence. Macklem at 11:05 NY is a medium CAD risk; 0.52 ATR stop under the shelf. Full CADCHF analysis Sentiment detail
EURUSD	Neutral	Low	1.14909	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.14909 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.14978 1.15229 1.15427 Support: 1.14556 1.13911 1.13774 Rationale Bearish structure intact but the long-USD theme is already carried by USDCHF, USDCAD and NZDUSD, and three sessions of coiling in the 1.14556-1.14978 shelf leave no clean 1:1 short. Lagarde at 11:00 NY adds a medium-impact euro headline. Full EURUSD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPUSD	Neutral	Low	1.33929	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.33929 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.33980 1.34517 1.34976 Support: 1.33423 1.33360 1.33221 Rationale Cable's downtrend is real but redundant with the three long-USD plans already on the board, and 1.3336 has now been tested twice without follow-through. Price closed at the top of its range, arguing for a deeper bounce first. Full GBPUSD analysis Sentiment detail
USDJPY	Neutral	Low	156.882	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 156.882 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 158.000 159.780 160.395 Support: 156.673 155.885 155.339 Rationale The 18 Sep BoJ split-vote hike drove the yen sell-off, but reports the BoJ has room to accelerate hikes and the intervention-sensitive 158-160 zone make a long into 158.00 the wrong side of the news. Japan bank holiday from Sun 19:00 NY thins Asian liquidity. Full USDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
AUDUSD	Neutral	Low	0.71242	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.71242 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.71294 0.71358 0.71497 Support: 0.71214 0.71062 0.70837 Rationale Bias is neutral, price is pinned between the 0.71214 and 0.71294 pivots with a conflicting negative MACD into rising price. The long-AUD theme is expressed in AUDNZD, AUDCHF and GBPAUD instead. Full AUDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
EURGBP	Neutral	Low	0.85788	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.85788 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.85831 0.85946 0.86067 Support: 0.85725 0.85707 0.85528 Rationale Pure 0.85527-0.86078 range with RSI on the midline and a 22-pip ATR, so no level sits far enough to pay 1:1 on a legitimate stop. Lagarde at 11:00 NY is an added coin-flip risk. Full EURGBP analysis Sentiment detail
EURJPY	Neutral	Low	180.276	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 180.276 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 181.486 183.645 185.284 Support: 179.369 178.949 178.475 Rationale Bias neutral and the 181.486 pop was half retraced with MACD still negative; BoJ tightening talk plus the Japan holiday keeps the yen two-way. Lagarde adds a euro-side headline at 11:00 NY. Full EURJPY analysis Sentiment detail
EURAUD	Neutral	Low	1.61230	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.61230 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.61462 1.62275 1.62523 Support: 1.60874 1.60813 1.60000 Rationale Bearish sequence intact but redundant with the long-AUD plans in AUDNZD, AUDCHF and GBPAUD, and the histogram ticking up to +0.0004 hints the impulse is tiring. The 1.60874/1.60813 supports sit too close together for a 1:1 payoff. Full EURAUD analysis Sentiment detail
EURCAD	Neutral	Low	1.60692	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.60692 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.60800 1.60969 1.61184 Support: 1.60476 1.60249 1.60082 Rationale Six candles opening and closing inside the 1.60006-1.61184 box with a zero MACD - no impulse in either direction. Lagarde and Macklem both speak within five minutes at midday NY, squarely on this cross. Full EURCAD analysis Sentiment detail
EURNZD	Neutral	Low	2.00781	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 2.00781 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.01118 2.01162 2.02375 Support: 2.00084 2.00005 1.99714 Rationale Strong uptrend but redundant with the short-NZD plans in NZDUSD, NZDCAD and AUDNZD, which are the cleaner expressions. Lagarde at 11:00 NY adds euro headline risk to an already extended 500-pip run. Full EURNZD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPJPY	Neutral	Low	210.124	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 210.124 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 211.261 213.675 214.324 Support: 209.574 209.100 208.258 Rationale Breakout is running ahead of momentum (RSI 42, MACD histogram -0.14) and the BoJ-accelerating-hikes report plus the Japan holiday make long yen crosses the wrong side of the news. No JPY plan on the book by design. Full GBPJPY analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCHF	Neutral	Low	1.10120	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.10120 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.10292 1.10667 1.11000 Support: 1.10007 1.09904 1.09364 Rationale Bull trend on pause with four closes clustered in a 40-pip band and a fading MACD. The short-CHF theme is already at its cap through USDCHF, AUDCHF and EURCHF. Full GBPCHF analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCAD	Neutral	Low	1.87307	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.87307 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.87463 1.87890 1.88522 Support: 1.87127 1.86796 1.86493 Rationale Mechanical fortnight-long 1.86074-1.87890 range, flat MACD and a 50/50 retail book give no edge. Macklem speaks 11:05 NY, a medium CAD risk inside the window. Full GBPCAD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPNZD	Neutral	Low	2.34023	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 2.34023 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.34248 2.34815 2.34897 Support: 2.32840 2.32640 2.31554 Rationale Momentum is there but this is a fourth short-NZD bet; redundant with NZDUSD, NZDCAD and AUDNZD, which carry that theme with better structure. RSI 66.5 into the 2.34897 high argues for a pause. Full GBPNZD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDJPY	Neutral	Low	111.759	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 111.759 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 112.585 112.630 112.810 Support: 111.198 110.829 110.332 Rationale MACD still negative at -0.12 so the 18 Sep run to 112.585 is unconfirmed, and the BoJ hike-acceleration report plus Japan's holiday make yen shorts headline-exposed. AUD risk is already at its cap. Full AUDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CADJPY	Neutral	Low	112.190	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 112.190 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 112.889 113.455 114.676 Support: 111.457 111.077 110.803 Rationale Breakout not endorsed by momentum (RSI 43.5, histogram -0.09) and 64% retail long is a mild drag. BoJ tightening talk and the Japan holiday keep every yen cross off the book; Macklem speaks 11:05 NY. Full CADJPY analysis Sentiment detail
NZDJPY	Neutral	Low	89.789	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 89.789 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 90.338 90.683 91.203 Support: 89.288 89.023 88.962 Rationale Weakest yen cross and the natural short, but it would be a fourth short-NZD plan and it is long JPY into the BoJ-acceleration headline and holiday-thinned Asian liquidity. Theme already carried by NZDUSD, NZDCAD and AUDNZD. Full NZDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CHFJPY	Neutral	Low	190.809	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 190.809 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 191.675 192.121 192.914 Support: 189.146 189.087 188.464 Rationale Bias neutral: MACD deeply negative at -2.16 with the 191.675 pop unconfirmed. Japan holiday and BoJ hike speculation make the yen leg two-way. Full CHFJPY analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCAD	Neutral	Low	0.99632	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.99632 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.99786 0.99827 0.99911 Support: 0.99449 0.99093 0.98966 Rationale Range strength rather than trend (flat MACD) inside 0.98918-0.99911, and redundant with the long-AUD plans in AUDNZD, AUDCHF and GBPAUD. Macklem at 11:05 NY adds CAD headline risk. Full AUDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCHF	Neutral	Low	0.47051	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.47051 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.47281 0.47377 0.47534 Support: 0.47037 0.47007 0.46985 Rationale Valid downtrend but a fourth short-NZD bet and a third short-CHF-side conflict; NZDUSD, NZDCAD and AUDNZD already carry the kiwi theme. Supports at 0.47037/0.47007/0.46985 are stacked too tightly for 1:1. Full NZDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
XAUUSD	Neutral	Low	4377.88	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 4377.88 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 4398.40 4449.63 4510.94 Support: 4341.43 4335.64 4292.51 Rationale Bias neutral and the MACD histogram at -18.95 is the most negative on the board, so the two-day bounce is corrective with a 102-dollar ATR blurring levels. A hawkish post-hike Fed path and firm yields argue against chasing the rebound. Full XAUUSD analysis Sentiment detail

Expected result is in R — multiples of what the plan risks. +0.20R on a $100 risk means about $20 back, on average over a long run of plans like it — an estimate, not a result.

Verified record

The three we pick

+$5 average per $100 risked

78 of 117 picks filled, over 39 verified days · target hit 17%

Every plan on the board

−$6 average per $100 risked

325 plans over 39 verified days · target hit 10%

39 verified days is a short record, and neither number is proof yet. On 78 picks the honest range around the +$5 runs from −$12 to +$22 — wide enough to include zero. We publish both figures as they grow, win or lose.

How solid is this, exactly?

What the two numbers are. The board is the whole sheet, all 29 markets, and it includes every plan that did not clear the bar for the Top 3. The Top 3 are the ones declared the evening before, when the forecast is published — not picked afterwards: every one of them is in the dated archive, so you can check any past day yourself. Of 117 picks published, 78 were actually filled; the rest never reached their entry price and are excluded, here as everywhere else.

Why the sample is weaker than the count suggests. 20 of the 78 picks lost the full $100, against 45 that closed above zero — the shape of the record so far. One session accounts for 69% of the Top 3 result, and 26 of the 78 picks were the same underlying bet (long AUD) expressed on different pairs, so they are fewer independent outcomes than they look. The board figure carries its own range, −$14 to +$2, which also includes zero.

What this sample cannot show. That the picks beat the board, and that either of them makes money over time. What it does show is the method: every plan checked against the real candles of its day and republished, whatever it did.

How the 325 plans of the board ended (19 Aug – 12 Oct 2026)

Target hit 10% (34)
Stop hit 24% (78)
Timed out 66% (213)

Every plan is checked against the real market candles of its target day. “Timed out” means the order was still open at the end of the day and is counted at its closing price — not as a loss. 158 plans never reached the entry price, so they are excluded.

See the full breakdown

30% Win rate 34 of 112 plans closed at target or stop

-0.06R Actual average result what the plans really returned, per traded plan, risking the same amount on every one

+0.09R Timed-out average how those 213 orders ended, on average

A high win rate alone doesn’t mean profit: what matters is how much each win and each loss is worth. That is what the number at the top measures.

Win rate by direction

Bullish

22%

14 of 65 plans

Bearish

43%

20 of 47 plans

Win rate by pair

Pair	Win rate	Plans
GBPJPY	75%	3 / 4
EURJPY	67%	2 / 3
NZDJPY	67%	2 / 3
AUDCHF	50%	3 / 6
NZDCAD	50%	2 / 4
AUDUSD	43%	3 / 7
EURUSD	40%	2 / 5
NZDUSD	40%	2 / 5
USDCAD	40%	2 / 5
XAUUSD	33%	1 / 3
GBPUSD	33%	1 / 3
CHFJPY	33%	1 / 3
EURCHF	30%	3 / 10
EURGBP	25%	1 / 4
GBPAUD	25%	1 / 4
EURNZD	25%	1 / 4
USDCHF	25%	1 / 4
USDJPY	25%	1 / 4
AUDJPY	20%	1 / 5
GBPCAD	0%	0 / 6
NZDCHF	0%	0 / 4
AUDCAD	0%	0 / 3
GBPNZD	0%	0 / 3

What each outcome means

Target hit: Price reached the conservative target without touching the stop first, and the minute-by-minute prices of our data feed (bid and ask, the sides a real order fills and closes on) confirm it happened after the order filled; where a day has no complete minute record, the hourly candles take over. A price printed before the entry was reached does not count: there was no position to close.
Stop hit: Price reached the stop before the target. Counts as a loss. When a day touched both levels, the minute prices say which one came first (the hourly candles where the minute record is incomplete) — and a stop can only be hit after the entry filled, never before. In the rare event that both land inside the same minute, the tie goes to the loss.
Timed out: The order was still open when the day ended: it is closed at that day's closing price, so the result can be slightly positive or slightly negative. Not a loss.
Not filled: Price never reached the entry, so the order would never have opened. Excluded from every rate — counting it either way would be inventing a trade that did not exist.
Range held / Range broken: Only for neutral calls, where the forecast says a pair has no direction and publishes no trade. We check whether the day closed inside the levels we published: held if it did, broken if it did not. Neither counts in the statistics, because there was no order to place.

The Result column is in R, multiples of what that plan put at risk: +1.50R means one and a half times the risk, −1R is a full stop loss. It is the same unit as the headline above, which is simply the average R turned into dollars.

Day by day

12 Oct 2026 2 target · 0 stop · 2 timed out $100 → $185

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12070 → 1.11612	Target hit	+1.12R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42470 → 1.42980	Timed out	+0.85R
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56170 → 0.55930	Target hit	+1.09R
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84680 → 0.84474	Not filled	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Bearish	1.60480 → 1.60000	Timed out	+0.36R
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35680 → 2.36646	Not filled	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.24300 → 1.24650	Not filled	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–

9 Oct 2026 1 target · 3 stop · 5 timed out $100 → $84

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12210 → 1.11612	Timed out	+0.61R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83060 → 0.83464	Timed out	-0.23R
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84790 → 0.84613	Target hit	+1.04R
EURJPY	Bearish	177.250 → 176.516	Timed out	-0.04R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Bullish	1.90000 → 1.90693	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35920 → 2.36646	Timed out	-0.18R
AUDJPY	Bearish	110.000 → 109.233	Stop hit	-1.00R
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46650 → 0.46357	Timed out	+0.35R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Bearish	4147.00 → 4066.46	Stop hit	-1.00R

8 Oct 2026 0 target · 0 stop · 7 timed out $100 → $125

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12100 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.08R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83200 → 0.83615	Timed out	-0.21R
AUDUSD	Bearish	0.69710 → 0.69426	Timed out	+0.45R
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93360 → 0.92951	Timed out	+0.35R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Bearish	1.59730 → 1.59058	Timed out	+0.82R
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.24270 → 1.24650	Timed out	-0.18R
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46690 → 0.46515	Timed out	+0.61R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

7 Oct 2026 1 target · 1 stop · 0 timed out $100 → $106

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84862 → 0.84547	Not filled	–
EURJPY	Bearish	178.280 → 177.029	Target hit	+1.12R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88480 → 1.89118	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35780 → 2.36646	Not filled	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Bearish	89.080 → 88.329	Not filled	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCAD	Bearish	0.80000 → 0.79711	Not filled	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

6 Oct 2026 0 target · 3 stop · 4 timed out $100 → $49

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12290 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.50R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42500 → 1.42931	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56080 → 0.55798	Timed out	-0.67R
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84890 → 0.84547	Timed out	+0.35R
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93290 → 0.93018	Stop hit	-1.00R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88400 → 1.88934	Not filled	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35880 → 2.36646	Timed out	+0.25R
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46580 → 0.46330	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

Forecast Methodology

How We Generate Forecasts

Our daily forex forecasts combine technical analysis, sentiment data, algorithmic indicators and artificial intelligence to write one tradable plan per market for the next session — and only where the levels allow one. What each plan is worth is stated as an expected result, and how the plans actually ended is published below.

The forecasting process is structured in four main phases:

Data Collection: We aggregate market data from reliable specialized providers, along with historical data for analysis.
Technical Analysis: We calculate key indicators such as RSI, MACD and ATR and identify significant support and resistance levels on the daily candles.
AI Integration: Our artificial intelligence model reads all of those factors together and writes the plan: entry, stop and two targets, with the levels it is built on.
Verification: every forecast is checked against the real market candles of its target day — target reached, stop hit, still open at the close, or entry never touched — and the full record is published on this page, win or lose.

Since August 2026 the model also receives the week's economic calendar: since 16 September 2026 a pair with a high-impact release on either of its currencies inside the plan window gets no directional plan at all (on the verified record those plans lost 0.35R per filled plan and were stopped half of the time, against a small gain and one stop in six for the rest), medium-impact releases are weighed as gap risk, and the events considered are recorded with each forecast. Since September 2026 it also reads the last 48 hours of our forex news feed and runs a few web searches for the day's macro context (central-bank expectations, intervention warnings, risk events), and the plans are treated as one book: at most three directional plans per currency, the rest set to neutral, so that one adverse headline cannot stop twenty plans that were really a single trade.

Forecasts are generated at 18:30 New York time, ninety minutes after the daily rollover, and cover the trading day that has just opened. Each plan is meant to run until 16:00 New York, an hour before the next rollover: that hour is left out on purpose, because spreads widen so much that a stop can be hit without the market ever moving there. The verification uses the same window.

How to Use These Forecasts

Forecast Components

Direction: The expected price orientation (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) for the next 24 hours
Entry Point: The price the order waits for. Every plan is a limit order — a buy limit for a long, a sell limit for a short — so the entry is a pullback from the price at the time the plan was written, and the numbers above hold whenever you place it.
Stop Loss: The level to limit losses if the market moves contrary to the forecast
Targets: Two price objectives — a conservative one, which is the first real level worth at least as much as the plan risks, and an optimal one further out
Expected Result: What one plan is worth for every unit of risk, over a long run of plans like it — the single number that summarises the plan. Risk $100 on each and +0.20R means about $20 back on average per plan, −0.05R about $5 lost. It weighs three outcomes, not two: the target is reached, the stop is reached, or the order is still open when the window closes and is counted at its closing price — that last case is the majority, and the rate it is priced at comes from the verified record below, not from an assumption. Only plans with a positive expected result, and with target odds above the no-edge baseline, are promoted to the Top 3; when fewer than three clear the bar, the Top 3 is shorter, or empty
Target odds: the model's chance that the conservative target is hit before the stop and before the window closes, once the order fills. It is not shown next to each plan: with three possible outcomes a plan with no edge at all already sits at the no-edge baseline for a 1:1 plan is about 16%, not 50%, so the raw figure means nothing without that baseline printed beside it. The expected result carries the baseline inside, and the rates actually measured on the record are published below
Risk/Reward Ratio: What the plan stands to make against what it risks. Never below 1:1 — a plan that risks more than it can win needs to be right most of the time just to break even

Trading Implementation

Read the expected result, not the reward-to-risk alone: a wide target that is rarely reached can be worth less than a near one, and the expected result is the number that already weighs the two together
Always use the indicated stop losses to manage risk
Consider taking partial profit at the conservative target
Adjust position size based on expected volatility
Monitor key support and resistance levels for potential deviations
Use these forecasts as part of a complete trading strategy, not as the sole decision source

Important: A positive expected result is an estimate over many plans, not a promise about the next one, and no forecast here guarantees future results. These are statistical tools based on historical patterns and current market conditions. Always use appropriate risk management and consider these forecasts as valuable inputs for your trading decisions, not as automatic instructions.

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Background reading

From our blog, on what this page measures.

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Daily Forex Forecast

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Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

General Outlook

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