Daily Forex Forecast

Every night our AI builds a trade plan for every market that offers one — entry, stop, two targets, with the reward-to-risk and what the plan is worth on average per unit risked in plain sight; pairs it reads as directionless get a range instead. Then the market judges it: every plan is checked against real candles and published again, win or lose. And the rollover hour, when spreads blow out and stops get hit for nothing, stays outside the plan on purpose.

Forecast generated: Tuesday, 22 September 2026 Forecast for: Wednesday, 23 September 2026 Plan window: Tue 23:00 – Wed 20:00 UTC Stop hit on about 2 in 10 plans · verified record

Archive 2026-09-22

Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

Reading guide: This overview provides a general outlook of market conditions expected for the next 24 hours of trading. It describes the overall sentiment of forex markets, the expected volatility level, key events to monitor, and the currency pairs presenting the best trading opportunities according to our artificial intelligence.

General Outlook

Today's plans express three themes: a long dollar against the euro and the kiwi after last week's hawkish Fed, a long Australian dollar into expectations of an RBA hike next week, and a short Canadian dollar and franc-strength tilt versus EUR, GBP and NZD. Japan is on holiday, so every yen cross is left flat on thin Tokyo liquidity rather than traded. Euro and sterling flash PMIs in the European morning are the only scheduled risk, so entries there stay shallow and confidence measured.

Volatility Forecast

Medium

Key Events to Monitor

EUR Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs (France 03:15 NY, Germany 03:30 NY) - medium impact on EUR pairs
GBP Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 04:30 NY, with services forecast to soften to 52.0
JPY bank holiday all day: thin liquidity in yen crosses, all JPY pairs left neutral
AUD: banks and markets price an RBA hike at the 29 September meeting after hawkish official comments, underpinning AUD crosses

Best Opportunities

USDCAD Bullish

AUDCAD Bullish

NZDUSD Bearish

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

Trading with these forecasts: The Top 3 are the pairs the model singles out as the best of the session, kept only when what the plan is worth — the odds of the target, the reward-to-risk and the share of plans that run out of time, read together — is positive; if fewer than three clear that bar, the list is shorter — sometimes empty. Each forecast carries an entry, a stop loss and two targets, so the whole plan is on the table before you decide. No plan is published below 1:1: if no real level on the chart offers at least as much reward as risk, the pair is published as Neutral instead. The whole chain is ours — our AI generates the plan, our own geometry rules validate every level server-side, and our verification republishes the outcome win or lose — and the same feed powers the MT5 Trade Panel. On the verified record when these plans were written (243 filled plans), 9% hit the target, 22% hit the stop and 69% timed out at the window close: that is the mix behind the expected result shown on each plan.

USDCAD

Bullish High Confidence

R/R 1:2.20

Expected result +0.13 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 1.40540 Buy limit

Stop Loss 1.40200 (34.0 pips)

Conservative Target 1.41289 (74.9 pips)

Optimal Target 1.42432 (189.2 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.40842 1.41289 1.42432

Support: 1.40249 1.39971 1.39762

Rationale

Cleanest trend on the list: eight higher lows, expanding MACD and 78% of retail short into new highs. Stop sits under the 1.40249 shelf, target at the 1.41289 pivot for a better than 2:1 ratio.

Full USDCAD analysis Sentiment detail

AUDCAD

Bullish High Confidence

R/R 1:1.25

Expected result +0.10 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 1.00000 Buy limit

Stop Loss 0.99600 (40.0 pips)

Conservative Target 1.00500 (50.0 pips)

Optimal Target 1.01000 (100.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.00126 1.00500

Support: 0.99640 0.99488 0.98966

Rationale

First close above parity with RSI 63.7 and 79% of retail short, the most lopsided book alongside USDCAD. Limit at the parity retest, stop under the 0.9964 failed-break level.

Full AUDCAD analysis Sentiment detail

NZDUSD

Bearish High Confidence

R/R 1:1.73

Expected result +0.13 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.57340 Sell limit

Stop Loss 0.57570 (23.0 pips)

Conservative Target 0.56942 (39.8 pips)

Optimal Target 0.56723 (61.7 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.57488 0.57727 0.58135

Support: 0.56942 0.56723 0.56264

Rationale

Kiwi is the weakest currency on the board with RSI 34 and 77% of retail long into the slide, a crowded book that caps rallies. Volatility stop of 0.5 ATR sits above the 0.57488 resistance.

Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail

These plans can go straight onto your chart. The Trade Panel EA reads this same forecast inside MetaTrader 5 — entry, stop and both targets — and prefills the pending order at the published price, so the trade you place is the one measured on this page. The Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws the plan on the chart of that market, with stop and target you can drag. It is available now — one license covers both panels. New to trade panels? How an MT5 trade panel places these plans.

Discover the Trade Panel EA

Complete Forecasts

Using the forecast table: This table shows forecasts for all major forex pairs. Use the filter controls to focus on specific directions (bullish, bearish, neutral) or confidence levels. Each forecast includes the expected direction, entry levels, stop loss and targets, the reward-to-risk ratio and the expected result it is worth per unit of risk. Click on a row to view additional details for that currency pair.

Pair	Direction	Confidence	Analysis Price	Entry	Stop Loss	Target	Expected result	Risk:Reward	Result
USDCAD	Bullish	High	1.40610	1.40540Buy limit	1.40200	1.41289	+0.13R	1:2.20	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.13R Analysis Price 1.40610 Entry Point 1.40540 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.40200 Conservative Target 1.41289 Risk:Reward 1:2.20 Optimal Target 1.42432 Stop Loss Distance 34.0 pips Target Distance 74.9 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.40842 1.41289 1.42432 Support: 1.40249 1.39971 1.39762 Rationale Cleanest trend on the list: eight higher lows, expanding MACD and 78% of retail short into new highs. Stop sits under the 1.40249 shelf, target at the 1.41289 pivot for a better than 2:1 ratio. Full USDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDUSD	Bearish	High	0.57284	0.57340Sell limit	0.57570	0.56942	+0.13R	1:1.73	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.13R Analysis Price 0.57284 Entry Point 0.57340 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.57570 Conservative Target 0.56942 Risk:Reward 1:1.73 Optimal Target 0.56723 Stop Loss Distance 23.0 pips Target Distance 39.8 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.57488 0.57727 0.58135 Support: 0.56942 0.56723 0.56264 Rationale Kiwi is the weakest currency on the board with RSI 34 and 77% of retail long into the slide, a crowded book that caps rallies. Volatility stop of 0.5 ATR sits above the 0.57488 resistance. Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
CADCHF	Bearish	Medium	0.58359	0.58400Sell limit	0.58610	0.57862	+0.13R	1:2.56	-0.41RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.13R Analysis Price 0.58359 Entry Point 0.58400 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.58610 Conservative Target 0.57862 Risk:Reward 1:2.56 Optimal Target 0.57725 Stop Loss Distance 21.0 pips Target Distance 53.8 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.58578 0.58644 0.58805 Support: 0.58294 0.57862 0.57725 Rationale Four straight down sessions broke the 0.58484 shelf with a fresh MACD bearish cross, and 75% of retail is long against it. Stop beyond 0.58578, target the 0.57862 pivot. Full CADCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCHF	Bullish	Medium	0.58389	0.58350Buy limit	0.58180	0.58583	+0.12R	1:1.37	-1.00RStop hit
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.12R Analysis Price 0.58389 Entry Point 0.58350 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.58180 Conservative Target 0.58583 Risk:Reward 1:1.37 Optimal Target 0.58825 Stop Loss Distance 17.0 pips Target Distance 23.3 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.58496 0.58583 0.58825 Support: 0.58211 0.58170 0.58122 Rationale Higher lows from 0.57393 are intact and 77% of retail is short, a one-sided book propping the uptrend into expected RBA tightening next week. Stop sits below the 0.58211 support, target at the 0.58583 shelf. Full AUDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCAD	Bullish	High	1.00067	1.00000Buy limit	0.99600	1.00500	+0.10R	1:1.25	-1.00RStop hit
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.10R Analysis Price 1.00067 Entry Point 1.00000 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.99600 Conservative Target 1.00500 Risk:Reward 1:1.25 Optimal Target 1.01000 Stop Loss Distance 40.0 pips Target Distance 50.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.00126 1.00500 Support: 0.99640 0.99488 0.98966 Rationale First close above parity with RSI 63.7 and 79% of retail short, the most lopsided book alongside USDCAD. Limit at the parity retest, stop under the 0.9964 failed-break level. Full AUDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
EURUSD	Bearish	Medium	1.14491	1.14545Sell limit	1.14785	1.14292	+0.09R	1:1.05	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.09R Analysis Price 1.14491 Entry Point 1.14545 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 1.14785 Conservative Target 1.14292 Risk:Reward 1:1.05 Optimal Target 1.13911 Stop Loss Distance 24.0 pips Target Distance 25.3 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.14777 1.14957 1.15229 Support: 1.14292 1.13911 1.13774 Rationale Four weeks of lower highs with RSI 33 and MACD still accelerating lower keep the sell side in control, stop just beyond 1.14777. Entry kept shallow because the French and German flash PMIs land in the European morning. Full EURUSD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCHF	Bearish	Medium	0.47014	0.47055Sell limit	0.47230	0.46799	+0.09R	1:1.46	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.09R Analysis Price 0.47014 Entry Point 0.47055 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.47230 Conservative Target 0.46799 Risk:Reward 1:1.46 Optimal Target 0.46742 Stop Loss Distance 17.5 pips Target Distance 25.6 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.47196 0.47377 0.47534 Support: 0.46985 0.46917 0.46799 Rationale Steady lower highs with every push above 0.47377 rejected and 65% of retail long into the slide. Stop above yesterday's 0.47196 bounce high. Full NZDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
EURCHF	Bearish	Medium	0.93922	0.93970Sell limit	0.94190	0.93729	+0.08R	1:1.10	+0.38RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.08R Analysis Price 0.93922 Entry Point 0.93970 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.94190 Conservative Target 0.93729 Risk:Reward 1:1.10 Optimal Target 0.93073 Stop Loss Distance 22.0 pips Target Distance 24.1 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.94126 0.94175 0.94433 Support: 0.93835 0.93729 0.93073 Rationale Four lower closes and a MACD bearish cross after slicing 0.94126 keep the 0.93729 pivot in play. Stop beyond 0.94175 resistance; euro PMIs in the morning are the main risk to the plan. Full EURCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDNZD	Bullish	Medium	1.24227	1.24130Buy limit	1.23680	1.24777	+0.08R	1:1.44	-0.16RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.08R Analysis Price 1.24227 Entry Point 1.24130 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.23680 Conservative Target 1.24777 Risk:Reward 1:1.44 Optimal Target 1.24910 Stop Loss Distance 45.0 pips Target Distance 64.7 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.24777 1.24910 1.25500 Support: 1.23796 1.23712 1.22781 Rationale Strongest currency against the weakest, with 75% retail short and RBA hike expectations behind the Aussie. RSI 73.6 and yesterday's close near the low justify a limit into the 1.23796 zone with the stop just beneath it. Full AUDNZD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCHF	Bearish	Medium	1.09502	1.09570Sell limit	1.09900	1.09136	+0.07R	1:1.32	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.07R Analysis Price 1.09502 Entry Point 1.09570 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 1.09900 Conservative Target 1.09136 Risk:Reward 1:1.32 Optimal Target 1.08961 Stop Loss Distance 33.0 pips Target Distance 43.4 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.09674 1.09880 1.10059 Support: 1.09372 1.09364 1.09136 Rationale A three-day unwind from 1.10667 broke the 1.10003 floor and flipped MACD bearish, leaving 1.09364 as the decision point. Stop above the 1.0988 shelf; UK flash PMIs at 04:30 NY are the event risk. Full GBPCHF analysis Sentiment detail
GBPUSD	Neutral	Low	1.33444	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.33444 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.33871 1.34063 1.34517 Support: 1.33214 1.32736 1.32000 Rationale Bearish bias is redundant with the dollar longs already expressed in EURUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD. UK flash PMIs at 04:30 NY add event noise on a double low at 1.33214. Full GBPUSD analysis Sentiment detail
USDJPY	Neutral	Low	157.391	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 157.391 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 157.777 158.048 159.780 Support: 156.833 156.578 155.339 Rationale Japan is on holiday, so yen liquidity is thin and moves are unreliable. Dollar exposure is already carried by the EURUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD plans. Full USDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
USDCHF	Neutral	Low	0.82040	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.82040 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.82248 0.82639 Support: 0.81833 0.81668 0.81533 Rationale Four sessions of lower highs under 0.82639 make this the weakest dollar expression on the list. Redundant with the dollar longs in EURUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD. Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDUSD	Neutral	Low	0.71169	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.71169 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.71294 0.71403 0.71803 Support: 0.70922 0.70749 0.70223 Rationale Range bias with RSI 47.7 and 50/50 retail gives no edge between 0.70749 and 0.71403. AUD strength is expressed through AUDCAD, AUDNZD and AUDCHF instead. Full AUDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
EURGBP	Neutral	Low	0.85802	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.85802 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.85831 0.86048 0.86067 Support: 0.85707 0.85684 0.85528 Rationale Price is mid-box in a 0.85528-0.86067 range with ATR compressed near 21 pips and a flat MACD. Euro and UK flash PMIs both hit this cross within two hours. Full EURGBP analysis Sentiment detail
EURJPY	Neutral	Low	180.200	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 180.200 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 180.827 181.552 183.645 Support: 179.757 179.369 178.940 Rationale Three sessions pinned in a 179.757-180.827 shelf with RSI still under the midline. Tokyo holiday thins yen liquidity, so no yen cross is traded today. Full EURJPY analysis Sentiment detail
EURAUD	Neutral	Low	1.60874	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.60874 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.61490 1.61760 1.62275 Support: 1.60834 1.60813 1.60500 Rationale Supports at 1.60834/1.60813/1.605 are all too close to the price to pay for a stop beyond 1.6149, so no plan reaches 1:1. AUD strength is already carried by AUDCAD, AUDNZD and AUDCHF. Full EURAUD analysis Sentiment detail
EURCAD	Neutral	Low	1.61000	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.61000 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.61066 1.61184 1.61365 Support: 1.60607 1.60217 1.60085 Rationale Three weeks of chop between 1.60006 and 1.61184 with a neutral RSI 53 and no confirmed escape. Euro flash PMIs add two-way risk at the top of the box. Full EURCAD analysis Sentiment detail
EURNZD	Neutral	Low	1.99854	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.99854 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.00458 2.00945 2.01372 Support: 1.99403 1.99220 1.98684 Rationale Yesterday's outside day from 2.01372 to 1.99403 is the first real warning in the advance. The short-NZD theme is already expressed in NZDUSD, AUDNZD and NZDCHF. Full EURNZD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPJPY	Neutral	Low	210.027	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 210.027 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 210.898 211.283 213.675 Support: 209.574 209.520 208.247 Rationale Recovery is intact but RSI is still sub-50 and the bias confidence is low. Japan's bank holiday thins yen liquidity, so this cross stays flat. Full GBPJPY analysis Sentiment detail
GBPAUD	Neutral	Low	1.87538	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.87538 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.88249 1.88950 1.89510 Support: 1.87430 1.87331 1.87020 Rationale Bearish bias is sound but redundant with the long-AUD plans in AUDCAD, AUDNZD and AUDCHF. Supports at 1.8743/1.87331 sit too close to fund a stop above 1.88249. Full GBPAUD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCAD	Neutral	Low	1.87639	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.87639 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.87890 1.88522 1.89134 Support: 1.87222 1.87127 1.86552 Rationale Month-long box between 1.86074 and 1.8789 with MACD converging to zero, a range signature. UK flash PMIs at 04:30 NY add noise at the top of the band. Full GBPCAD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPNZD	Neutral	Low	2.32921	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 2.32921 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.34031 2.34780 2.34897 Support: 2.32450 2.29628 Rationale Yesterday's outside candle closed under the 2.3264 pivot, fraying the uptrend. Short-NZD exposure is already at its limit through NZDUSD, AUDNZD and NZDCHF. Full GBPNZD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDJPY	Neutral	Low	111.996	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 111.996 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 112.219 112.625 112.811 Support: 111.580 111.198 110.765 Rationale RSI exactly on the midline and two coiling sessions give a low-confidence bias. Tokyo holiday keeps yen liquidity thin, so AUD strength is expressed elsewhere. Full AUDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CADJPY	Neutral	Low	111.929	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 111.929 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 112.468 112.930 113.455 Support: 111.763 111.077 110.803 Rationale Three closes bunched near 112 with MACD still deeply negative read as a pause, not a turn. Japan's holiday argues against trading yen crosses today. Full CADJPY analysis Sentiment detail
NZDJPY	Neutral	Low	90.170	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 90.170 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 90.545 91.203 92.477 Support: 89.642 89.023 88.962 Rationale Bearish read is valid but yen liquidity is thin on Japan's bank holiday. Kiwi weakness is already carried by NZDUSD, AUDNZD and NZDCHF. Full NZDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CHFJPY	Neutral	Low	191.770	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 191.770 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 192.276 192.914 194.839 Support: 191.241 190.484 189.087 Rationale Rebound needs a close above 192.276 that RSI 44 has not yet earned. Japan's holiday thins the yen side, so no yen cross gets a plan. Full CHFJPY analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCAD	Neutral	Low	0.80553	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.80553 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.80667 0.81192 0.82121 Support: 0.80536 0.79932 0.79803 Rationale Yesterday's rally closed near its high, a counter-trend squeeze that muddies the bearish bias. Kiwi shorts are already at the limit via NZDUSD, AUDNZD and NZDCHF. Full NZDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
XAUUSD	Neutral	Low	4359.04	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 4359.04 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 4376.11 4399.70 4449.63 Support: 4324.83 4291.41 4282.77 Rationale RSI is dead neutral inside a volatile 4235-4400 correction with ATR near 98 dollars. A hawkish Fed backdrop keeps gold two-way; no edge until 4449.63 or 4282.77 breaks. Full XAUUSD analysis Sentiment detail

Expected result is in R — multiples of what the plan risks. +0.20R on a $100 risk means about $20 back, on average over a long run of plans like it — an estimate, not a result.

Verified record

The three we pick

+$5 average per $100 risked

78 of 117 picks filled, over 39 verified days · target hit 17%

Every plan on the board

−$6 average per $100 risked

325 plans over 39 verified days · target hit 10%

39 verified days is a short record, and neither number is proof yet. On 78 picks the honest range around the +$5 runs from −$12 to +$22 — wide enough to include zero. We publish both figures as they grow, win or lose.

How solid is this, exactly?

What the two numbers are. The board is the whole sheet, all 29 markets, and it includes every plan that did not clear the bar for the Top 3. The Top 3 are the ones declared the evening before, when the forecast is published — not picked afterwards: every one of them is in the dated archive, so you can check any past day yourself. Of 117 picks published, 78 were actually filled; the rest never reached their entry price and are excluded, here as everywhere else.

Why the sample is weaker than the count suggests. 20 of the 78 picks lost the full $100, against 45 that closed above zero — the shape of the record so far. One session accounts for 69% of the Top 3 result, and 26 of the 78 picks were the same underlying bet (long AUD) expressed on different pairs, so they are fewer independent outcomes than they look. The board figure carries its own range, −$14 to +$2, which also includes zero.

What this sample cannot show. That the picks beat the board, and that either of them makes money over time. What it does show is the method: every plan checked against the real candles of its day and republished, whatever it did.

How the 325 plans of the board ended (19 Aug – 12 Oct 2026)

Target hit 10% (34)
Stop hit 24% (78)
Timed out 66% (213)

Every plan is checked against the real market candles of its target day. “Timed out” means the order was still open at the end of the day and is counted at its closing price — not as a loss. 158 plans never reached the entry price, so they are excluded.

See the full breakdown

30% Win rate 34 of 112 plans closed at target or stop

-0.06R Actual average result what the plans really returned, per traded plan, risking the same amount on every one

+0.09R Timed-out average how those 213 orders ended, on average

A high win rate alone doesn’t mean profit: what matters is how much each win and each loss is worth. That is what the number at the top measures.

Win rate by direction

Bullish

22%

14 of 65 plans

Bearish

43%

20 of 47 plans

Win rate by pair

Pair	Win rate	Plans
GBPJPY	75%	3 / 4
EURJPY	67%	2 / 3
NZDJPY	67%	2 / 3
AUDCHF	50%	3 / 6
NZDCAD	50%	2 / 4
AUDUSD	43%	3 / 7
EURUSD	40%	2 / 5
NZDUSD	40%	2 / 5
USDCAD	40%	2 / 5
XAUUSD	33%	1 / 3
GBPUSD	33%	1 / 3
CHFJPY	33%	1 / 3
EURCHF	30%	3 / 10
EURGBP	25%	1 / 4
GBPAUD	25%	1 / 4
EURNZD	25%	1 / 4
USDCHF	25%	1 / 4
USDJPY	25%	1 / 4
AUDJPY	20%	1 / 5
GBPCAD	0%	0 / 6
NZDCHF	0%	0 / 4
AUDCAD	0%	0 / 3
GBPNZD	0%	0 / 3

What each outcome means

Target hit: Price reached the conservative target without touching the stop first, and the minute-by-minute prices of our data feed (bid and ask, the sides a real order fills and closes on) confirm it happened after the order filled; where a day has no complete minute record, the hourly candles take over. A price printed before the entry was reached does not count: there was no position to close.
Stop hit: Price reached the stop before the target. Counts as a loss. When a day touched both levels, the minute prices say which one came first (the hourly candles where the minute record is incomplete) — and a stop can only be hit after the entry filled, never before. In the rare event that both land inside the same minute, the tie goes to the loss.
Timed out: The order was still open when the day ended: it is closed at that day's closing price, so the result can be slightly positive or slightly negative. Not a loss.
Not filled: Price never reached the entry, so the order would never have opened. Excluded from every rate — counting it either way would be inventing a trade that did not exist.
Range held / Range broken: Only for neutral calls, where the forecast says a pair has no direction and publishes no trade. We check whether the day closed inside the levels we published: held if it did, broken if it did not. Neither counts in the statistics, because there was no order to place.

The Result column is in R, multiples of what that plan put at risk: +1.50R means one and a half times the risk, −1R is a full stop loss. It is the same unit as the headline above, which is simply the average R turned into dollars.

Day by day

12 Oct 2026 2 target · 0 stop · 2 timed out $100 → $185

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12070 → 1.11612	Target hit	+1.12R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42470 → 1.42980	Timed out	+0.85R
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56170 → 0.55930	Target hit	+1.09R
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84680 → 0.84474	Not filled	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Bearish	1.60480 → 1.60000	Timed out	+0.36R
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35680 → 2.36646	Not filled	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.24300 → 1.24650	Not filled	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–

9 Oct 2026 1 target · 3 stop · 5 timed out $100 → $84

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12210 → 1.11612	Timed out	+0.61R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83060 → 0.83464	Timed out	-0.23R
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84790 → 0.84613	Target hit	+1.04R
EURJPY	Bearish	177.250 → 176.516	Timed out	-0.04R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Bullish	1.90000 → 1.90693	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35920 → 2.36646	Timed out	-0.18R
AUDJPY	Bearish	110.000 → 109.233	Stop hit	-1.00R
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46650 → 0.46357	Timed out	+0.35R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Bearish	4147.00 → 4066.46	Stop hit	-1.00R

8 Oct 2026 0 target · 0 stop · 7 timed out $100 → $125

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12100 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.08R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83200 → 0.83615	Timed out	-0.21R
AUDUSD	Bearish	0.69710 → 0.69426	Timed out	+0.45R
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93360 → 0.92951	Timed out	+0.35R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Bearish	1.59730 → 1.59058	Timed out	+0.82R
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.24270 → 1.24650	Timed out	-0.18R
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46690 → 0.46515	Timed out	+0.61R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

7 Oct 2026 1 target · 1 stop · 0 timed out $100 → $106

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84862 → 0.84547	Not filled	–
EURJPY	Bearish	178.280 → 177.029	Target hit	+1.12R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88480 → 1.89118	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35780 → 2.36646	Not filled	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Bearish	89.080 → 88.329	Not filled	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCAD	Bearish	0.80000 → 0.79711	Not filled	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

6 Oct 2026 0 target · 3 stop · 4 timed out $100 → $49

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12290 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.50R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42500 → 1.42931	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56080 → 0.55798	Timed out	-0.67R
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84890 → 0.84547	Timed out	+0.35R
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93290 → 0.93018	Stop hit	-1.00R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88400 → 1.88934	Not filled	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35880 → 2.36646	Timed out	+0.25R
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46580 → 0.46330	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

Forecast Methodology

How We Generate Forecasts

Our daily forex forecasts combine technical analysis, sentiment data, algorithmic indicators and artificial intelligence to write one tradable plan per market for the next session — and only where the levels allow one. What each plan is worth is stated as an expected result, and how the plans actually ended is published below.

The forecasting process is structured in four main phases:

Data Collection: We aggregate market data from reliable specialized providers, along with historical data for analysis.
Technical Analysis: We calculate key indicators such as RSI, MACD and ATR and identify significant support and resistance levels on the daily candles.
AI Integration: Our artificial intelligence model reads all of those factors together and writes the plan: entry, stop and two targets, with the levels it is built on.
Verification: every forecast is checked against the real market candles of its target day — target reached, stop hit, still open at the close, or entry never touched — and the full record is published on this page, win or lose.

Since August 2026 the model also receives the week's economic calendar: since 16 September 2026 a pair with a high-impact release on either of its currencies inside the plan window gets no directional plan at all (on the verified record those plans lost 0.35R per filled plan and were stopped half of the time, against a small gain and one stop in six for the rest), medium-impact releases are weighed as gap risk, and the events considered are recorded with each forecast. Since September 2026 it also reads the last 48 hours of our forex news feed and runs a few web searches for the day's macro context (central-bank expectations, intervention warnings, risk events), and the plans are treated as one book: at most three directional plans per currency, the rest set to neutral, so that one adverse headline cannot stop twenty plans that were really a single trade.

Forecasts are generated at 18:30 New York time, ninety minutes after the daily rollover, and cover the trading day that has just opened. Each plan is meant to run until 16:00 New York, an hour before the next rollover: that hour is left out on purpose, because spreads widen so much that a stop can be hit without the market ever moving there. The verification uses the same window.

How to Use These Forecasts

Forecast Components

Direction: The expected price orientation (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) for the next 24 hours
Entry Point: The price the order waits for. Every plan is a limit order — a buy limit for a long, a sell limit for a short — so the entry is a pullback from the price at the time the plan was written, and the numbers above hold whenever you place it.
Stop Loss: The level to limit losses if the market moves contrary to the forecast
Targets: Two price objectives — a conservative one, which is the first real level worth at least as much as the plan risks, and an optimal one further out
Expected Result: What one plan is worth for every unit of risk, over a long run of plans like it — the single number that summarises the plan. Risk $100 on each and +0.20R means about $20 back on average per plan, −0.05R about $5 lost. It weighs three outcomes, not two: the target is reached, the stop is reached, or the order is still open when the window closes and is counted at its closing price — that last case is the majority, and the rate it is priced at comes from the verified record below, not from an assumption. Only plans with a positive expected result, and with target odds above the no-edge baseline, are promoted to the Top 3; when fewer than three clear the bar, the Top 3 is shorter, or empty
Target odds: the model's chance that the conservative target is hit before the stop and before the window closes, once the order fills. It is not shown next to each plan: with three possible outcomes a plan with no edge at all already sits at the no-edge baseline for a 1:1 plan is about 16%, not 50%, so the raw figure means nothing without that baseline printed beside it. The expected result carries the baseline inside, and the rates actually measured on the record are published below. Since 22 September 2026 the odds behind the expected result give the model's declared edge over that baseline only 50% credit: on the verified record the edges the model declared had not materialised, so the published expected result is computed from the credited odds, and the model's raw figure is kept in the data as model_probability
Risk/Reward Ratio: What the plan stands to make against what it risks. Never below 1:1 — a plan that risks more than it can win needs to be right most of the time just to break even

Trading Implementation

Read the expected result, not the reward-to-risk alone: a wide target that is rarely reached can be worth less than a near one, and the expected result is the number that already weighs the two together
Always use the indicated stop losses to manage risk
Consider taking partial profit at the conservative target
Adjust position size based on expected volatility
Monitor key support and resistance levels for potential deviations
Use these forecasts as part of a complete trading strategy, not as the sole decision source

Important: A positive expected result is an estimate over many plans, not a promise about the next one, and no forecast here guarantees future results. These are statistical tools based on historical patterns and current market conditions. Always use appropriate risk management and consider these forecasts as valuable inputs for your trading decisions, not as automatic instructions.

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Background reading

From our blog, on what this page measures.

Trading Expectancy: How to Calculate It Correctly and Improve ItExpectancy measures the average value you can expect per trade. It is the number that explains why a strategy can win mo…Read the article Forex Trade Management After Entry: Breakeven, Trailing, Partial Close, and When to Leave It AloneBreakeven, trailing, partial closes and the daily rollover: what each management tool does to a one-session plan, what i…Read the article Forex Position Sizing: How Much Should You Invest?Position Sizing refers to determining the most suitable investment for a single trade. Deciding to invest 10 euros rathe…Read the article

Daily Forex Forecast

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Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

General Outlook

Volatility Forecast

Key Events to Monitor

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