| EURJPY |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
177.317 |
177.500Sell limit |
178.140 |
176.516 |
+0.09R |
1:1.54 |
+1.54RTarget hit |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.09R
Analysis Price
177.317
Entry Point
177.500
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
178.140
Conservative Target
176.516
Risk:Reward
1:1.54
Optimal Target
176.212
Stop Loss Distance
64.0 pips
Target Distance
98.4 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
177.562
177.868
178.336
Support:
176.516
176.212
175.500
Rationale
Lower highs are pressing the 176.2-176.5 floor, with French fiscal risk weighing on the euro and BoJ December-hike expectations supporting the yen. Stop above 177.868; Lagarde's remarks are the main overnight risk.
|
| GBPCAD |
Bullish
|
Medium
|
1.88450 |
1.88350Buy limit |
1.87900 |
1.88971 |
+0.09R |
1:1.38 |
-1.00RStop hit |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.09R
Analysis Price
1.88450
Entry Point
1.88350
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
1.87900
Conservative Target
1.88971
Risk:Reward
1:1.38
Optimal Target
1.89256
Stop Loss Distance
45.0 pips
Target Distance
62.1 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.88508
1.88971
1.89256
Support:
1.88137
1.87948
1.87437
Rationale
Rising lows, with BoE hike bets set against a loonie hurt by weak Canadian jobs data: buy the dip with the stop under 1.87948 for the 1.88971 high. Bailey and Macklem speak early, keeping confidence at medium.
|
| GBPNZD |
Bullish
|
Medium
|
2.36138 |
2.36000Buy limit |
2.35380 |
2.36667 |
+0.09R |
1:1.08 |
-0.10RTimed out |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.09R
Analysis Price
2.36138
Entry Point
2.36000
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
2.35380
Conservative Target
2.36667
Risk:Reward
1:1.08
Optimal Target
2.37000
Stop Loss Distance
62.0 pips
Target Distance
66.7 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
2.36667
2.37000
2.38000
Support:
2.35847
2.35427
2.34420
Rationale
Uptrend pausing under 2.36667 with retail 71% short: buy the pullback above 2.35427 for a retest of the high. Bailey's speech is the overnight risk, so confidence is medium.
|
| NZDJPY |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
88.884 |
88.980Sell limit |
89.330 |
88.389 |
+0.09R |
1:1.69 |
+1.69RTarget hit |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.09R
Analysis Price
88.884
Entry Point
88.980
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
89.330
Conservative Target
88.389
Risk:Reward
1:1.69
Optimal Target
88.244
Stop Loss Distance
35.0 pips
Target Distance
59.1 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
88.971
89.073
89.511
Support:
88.389
88.244
88.116
Rationale
Sell the 88.97-89.07 range top where three sessions stalled, with retail 74% long and the yen supported by BoJ normalisation. Volatility stop about 0.5 ATR above 89.073.
|
| EURGBP |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
0.84483 |
0.84525Sell limit |
0.84663 |
0.84378 |
+0.08R |
1:1.07 |
-0.30RTimed out |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.08R
Analysis Price
0.84483
Entry Point
0.84525
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
0.84663
Conservative Target
0.84378
Risk:Reward
1:1.07
Optimal Target
0.84000
Stop Loss Distance
13.8 pips
Target Distance
14.7 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.84577
0.84869
0.85079
Support:
0.84474
0.84378
0.84000
Rationale
Downtrend with retail 80% long, the euro hit by French fiscal risk and sterling backed by BoE hike bets: sell a bounce under 0.84577 for the 0.84378 low. Lagarde and Bailey speak overnight, so confidence is trimmed to medium.
|
| EURCAD |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
1.59208 |
1.59330Sell limit |
1.59690 |
1.58963 |
+0.07R |
1:1.02 |
Not filled |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.07R
Analysis Price
1.59208
Entry Point
1.59330
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
1.59690
Conservative Target
1.58963
Risk:Reward
1:1.02
Optimal Target
1.58500
Stop Loss Distance
36.0 pips
Target Distance
36.7 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.59626
1.59877
1.60193
Support:
1.59058
1.58963
1.58500
Rationale
Fresh low at 1.58963 with retail 77% long: sell the pullback under 1.59626 for a retest of that low. Lagarde and Macklem speak before New York, so confidence is medium rather than high.
|
| EURUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.11978 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.11978
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.12429
1.12767
1.13367
Support:
1.11612
1.11525
1.11000
Rationale
Neutral: US CPI (High impact) at 08:30 NY falls inside the plan window. The bearish technical view is expressed through the euro crosses instead.
|
| USDJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
158.351 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
158.351
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
158.481
158.752
159.036
Support:
158.025
157.832
157.521
Rationale
Neutral: US CPI at 08:30 NY falls inside the window. BoJ December-hike bets and intervention risk near 160 also argue against chasing the long.
|
| AUDNZD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.24404 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.24404
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.24650
1.24906
1.25000
Support:
1.24260
1.24046
1.23555
Rationale
Neutral: the 1:1 target is the 1.2465 cap that has held for seven sessions, leaving no edge over the baseline. GBPNZD and NZDJPY already carry short NZD.
|
| USDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.83268 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.83268
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.83460
0.83615
0.83822
Support:
0.83128
0.82904
0.82272
Rationale
Neutral: US CPI at 08:30 NY is a High-impact release inside the plan window.
|
| NZDUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.56131 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.56131
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.56188
0.56279
0.56872
Support:
0.55930
0.55789
0.55500
Rationale
Neutral: US CPI at 08:30 NY is a High-impact release inside the window. NZD weakness is carried by GBPNZD and NZDJPY.
|
| EURCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.93242 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.93242
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.93490
0.93660
0.93938
Support:
0.93018
0.92757
0.92597
Rationale
Neutral: redundant with the short-EUR plans in EURGBP, EURJPY and EURCAD.
|
| EURNZD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.99496 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.99496
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.99983
2.00399
2.01110
Support:
1.99388
1.99205
1.95740
Rationale
Neutral: range bias with fading momentum, and three short-EUR plans already carry the EUR exposure.
|
| GBPUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.32545 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.32545
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.32853
1.33110
1.33488
Support:
1.32040
1.31934
1.31811
Rationale
Neutral: US CPI at 08:30 NY is a High-impact release inside the window, and the pair is boxed in 1.3181-1.3311 with balanced positioning.
|
| AUDUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.69829 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.69829
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.69898
0.69952
0.70267
Support:
0.69596
0.69497
0.69326
Rationale
Neutral: US CPI at 08:30 NY falls inside the window. Otherwise the 0.6933-0.6995 box would favour selling its top.
|
| EURAUD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.60360 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.60360
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.60674
1.61206
1.61453
Support:
1.60108
1.60000
Rationale
Neutral: redundant with the short-EUR plans in EURGBP, EURJPY and EURCAD. There is also no level beyond 1.6000 for a second target.
|
| GBPJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
209.885 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
209.885
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
210.097
210.890
211.275
Support:
209.559
208.887
208.193
Rationale
Neutral: a long fights yen support from BoJ December-hike bets and intervention risk. Long GBP is already carried by EURGBP, GBPCAD and GBPNZD.
|
| GBPCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.10366 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.10366
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.10459
1.10662
1.11044
Support:
1.10053
1.09614
1.09110
Rationale
Neutral: redundant with the long-GBP plans in EURGBP, GBPCAD and GBPNZD.
|
| CHFJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
190.169 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
190.169
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
190.416
190.944
192.478
Support:
189.486
189.163
188.455
Rationale
Neutral: eight closes inside 189.6-190.7 and a low-confidence bias offer no edge.
|
| CADCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.58567 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.58567
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.58636
0.58866
0.59074
Support:
0.58317
0.58280
0.58018
Rationale
Neutral: price sits under the 0.58636 pivot with flat momentum and balanced positioning.
|
| NZDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.79806 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.79806
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.80027
0.80200
0.80394
Support:
0.79680
0.79543
0.79504
Rationale
Neutral: redundant with the short-NZD plans, and a short here is long CAD after weak Canadian jobs data with Macklem speaking.
|
| CADJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
111.375 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
111.375
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
111.538
112.586
112.921
Support:
110.798
110.672
110.375
Rationale
Neutral: low-confidence bias with momentum turning up. EURJPY and NZDJPY already carry the long-JPY theme.
|
| NZDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.46739 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.46739
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.46811
0.47081
0.47237
Support:
0.46679
0.46519
0.46330
Rationale
Neutral: redundant with the short-NZD plans in GBPNZD and NZDJPY.
|
| XAUUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
4160.28 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
4160.28
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
4166.08
4217.17
4226.97
Support:
4146.92
4110.89
4066.46
Rationale
Neutral: US CPI at 08:30 NY counts for gold and falls inside the window. With an ATR near 82, the risk of price gapping through any stop is large.
|
| AUDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.58144 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.58144
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.58172
0.58468
0.58571
Support:
0.58095
0.57925
0.57739
Rationale
Neutral: the long needs a break of the 0.5817 cap and a run to 0.58468, too far for an honest edge.
|
| USDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.42185 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.42185
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.42828
1.42980
1.43500
Support:
1.42032
1.41960
1.41543
Rationale
Neutral: US CPI at 08:30 NY falls inside the window. Tuesday's failed break above the yearly high also argues against chasing the long.
|
| GBPAUD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.89815 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.89815
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.90170
1.90693
1.91148
Support:
1.89583
1.89388
1.89244
Rationale
Neutral: redundant with the long-GBP plans in EURGBP, GBPCAD and GBPNZD. The first valid target, 1.90693, is twice the risk away and leaves a thin edge.
|
| AUDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.99280 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.99280
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.99459
0.99756
1.00125
Support:
0.99183
0.98904
0.98389
Rationale
Neutral: mid-range with no momentum, and the first valid target at 0.99756 is twice the risk away.
|
| AUDJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
110.573 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
110.573
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
110.656
111.645
112.616
Support:
110.024
109.620
109.233
Rationale
Neutral: buying under the flat 110.66 lid fights yen support from BoJ normalisation and Asian risk-off after the Kospi slide.
|