| NZDCAD |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
0.78726 |
0.78800Sell limit |
0.79150 |
0.78383 |
+0.11R |
1:1.19 |
+0.40RTimed out |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.11R
Analysis Price
0.78726
Entry Point
0.78800
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
0.79150
Conservative Target
0.78383
Risk:Reward
1:1.19
Optimal Target
0.78000
Stop Loss Distance
35.0 pips
Target Distance
41.7 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.79470
0.79851
0.80034
Support:
0.78383
0.78000
Rationale
The RBNZ's surprise hold against the BoC's hike drives this range breakdown, and 84% of retail is still long. The old 0.7947 floor is 1.3 ATR away, so this uses a 0.66 ATR volatility stop above Thursday's high; CAD GDP at 08:30 NY is the medium-impact risk.
|
| EURGBP |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
0.83570 |
0.83610Sell limit |
0.83760 |
0.83447 |
+0.10R |
1:1.09 |
+1.09RTarget hit |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.10R
Analysis Price
0.83570
Entry Point
0.83610
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
0.83760
Conservative Target
0.83447
Risk:Reward
1:1.09
Optimal Target
0.83200
Stop Loss Distance
15.0 pips
Target Distance
16.3 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.83724
0.84019
0.84778
Support:
0.83500
0.83447
0.83200
Rationale
Lower highs are unbroken, retail is 82% long, and the euro slipped against sterling even after the ECB flagged a December hike. Stop is beyond 0.83724; oversold RSI 19.6 and the German CPI/GDP releases keep confidence at medium.
|
| EURCAD |
Bearish
|
Low
|
1.56375 |
1.56470Sell limit |
1.56900 |
1.55530 |
+0.10R |
1:2.19 |
+2.19RTarget hit |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.10R
Analysis Price
1.56375
Entry Point
1.56470
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
1.56900
Conservative Target
1.55530
Risk:Reward
1:2.19
Optimal Target
1.55000
Stop Loss Distance
43.0 pips
Target Distance
94.0 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.56450
1.56657
1.57162
Support:
1.55530
1.55000
Rationale
An ECB hold and Lagarde's early exit against a BoC that just hiked keep the lower-high staircase intact, with 79% retail long; sell just above 1.5645 with the stop beyond 1.56657. RSI 24, German data and CAD GDP at 08:30 NY keep confidence low.
|
| GBPNZD |
Bullish
|
Medium
|
2.37684 |
2.37500Buy limit |
2.36400 |
2.39000 |
+0.10R |
1:1.36 |
+0.29RTimed out |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.10R
Analysis Price
2.37684
Entry Point
2.37500
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
2.36400
Conservative Target
2.39000
Risk:Reward
1:1.36
Optimal Target
2.39000
Stop Loss Distance
110.0 pips
Target Distance
150.0 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
2.37744
2.38157
2.39000
Support:
2.36516
2.35427
2.34534
Rationale
The breakout driven by the RBNZ's surprise hold stayed above the old 2.36667 ceiling, and 76% of retail is fading it. Stop is beyond 2.36516, and 2.39 is the only level past the stop distance, so it serves as both targets.
|
| AUDNZD |
Bullish
|
Medium
|
1.24790 |
1.24700Buy limit |
1.24000 |
1.25558 |
+0.10R |
1:1.23 |
+0.24RTimed out |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.10R
Analysis Price
1.24790
Entry Point
1.24700
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
1.24000
Conservative Target
1.25558
Risk:Reward
1:1.23
Optimal Target
1.26020
Stop Loss Distance
70.0 pips
Target Distance
85.8 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.24925
1.25558
1.26020
Support:
1.24728
1.24046
1.23565
Rationale
Firm RBA hike bets against the RBNZ's surprise hold support the retest of the broken 1.2494 ceiling, with 71% of retail short. Stop is beyond 1.24046, where a close would mean the breakout failed.
|
| AUDUSD |
Bullish
|
Low
|
0.70269 |
0.70210Buy limit |
0.69980 |
0.70678 |
+0.08R |
1:2.03 |
+0.55RTimed out |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.08R
Analysis Price
0.70269
Entry Point
0.70210
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
0.69980
Conservative Target
0.70678
Risk:Reward
1:2.03
Optimal Target
0.70775
Stop Loss Distance
23.0 pips
Target Distance
46.8 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.70678
0.70775
0.71291
Support:
0.70221
0.70145
0.70041
Rationale
Rising lows, firm RBA hike bets after hot trimmed-mean CPI and 63% retail short favour a retest of 0.70678 after Thursday's rejection there. Stop is beyond 0.70041 at 0.51 ATR, and the US ECI at 08:30 NY keeps confidence low.
|
| XAUUSD |
Bearish
|
Low
|
4018.44 |
4027.00Sell limit |
4074.00 |
3975.71 |
+0.07R |
1:1.09 |
Not filled |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.07R
Analysis Price
4018.44
Entry Point
4027.00
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
4074.00
Conservative Target
3975.71
Risk:Reward
1:1.09
Optimal Target
3975.71
Stop Loss Distance
47.0 pts
Target Distance
51.3 pts
Key Levels
Resistance:
4069.48
4082.77
4105.00
Support:
4005.28
3975.71
Rationale
The failed rebound at 4082.77 and a widening negative MACD keep gold in its corrective downtrend below the broken range, with the stop beyond 4069.48. The US ECI at 08:30 NY and Iran peace-deal headlines are the event risks, and 3975.71 is the only target level.
|
| EURUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.11849 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.11849
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.11854
1.12266
1.12693
Support:
1.11612
1.11130
1.11047
Rationale
The ECB held but flagged a December hike, and a stop beyond 1.12266 leaves 1.1113 as the only valid target, 1.3 ATR away with no clear edge over baseline. The short-EUR theme is already in EURGBP and EURCAD.
|
| GBPUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.33841 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.33841
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.33842
1.34188
1.35678
Support:
1.33025
1.32723
1.32040
Rationale
Recent up days pulled back about 0.4 ATR and 1.33025 support is about 1 ATR away, which leaves 1.34188 at roughly baseline odds. Long-GBP exposure is already in EURGBP and GBPNZD.
|
| USDJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
157.693 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
157.693
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
158.056
158.346
158.948
Support:
157.536
156.678
156.080
Rationale
High-impact BOJ Policy Rate, Statement and Outlook Report at 22:30 NY and Press Conference at 01:30 NY fall inside the plan window. No directional plan.
|
| USDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.82316 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.82316
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.82635
0.82972
0.83128
Support:
0.82272
0.82175
0.81913
Rationale
Range-bound between 0.8191 and 0.8395 with price sitting on 0.8227 support and balanced retail positioning. The technicals give no edge either way.
|
| USDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.39814 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.39814
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.40142
1.40680
1.41318
Support:
1.39679
1.39000
1.37620
Rationale
Buyers keep defending the 1.3965 floor, and the first valid target, 1.39, is about 1.5 ATR away, with US ECI and CAD GDP both at 08:30 NY. The long-CAD theme is in NZDCAD and EURCAD.
|
| NZDUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.56310 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.56310
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.56362
0.56872
0.57099
Support:
0.56064
0.55806
0.55649
Rationale
The RBNZ's surprise hold supports the bearish read, but this would be one short-NZD plan too many. That theme is already in NZDCAD, AUDNZD and GBPNZD.
|
| EURJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
176.382 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
176.382
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
176.429
177.280
177.965
Support:
175.441
175.094
Rationale
High-impact BOJ Policy Rate and Statement at 22:30 NY plus the Press Conference at 01:30 NY are inside the plan window. No directional plan.
|
| EURCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.92072 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.92072
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.92387
0.92617
0.93345
Support:
0.91950
0.91500
Rationale
With the stop beyond 0.92387, only 0.915 reaches 1:1, and it sits 1.4 ATR away past the 0.9195 twin floor, which is no better than baseline. The short-EUR theme is in EURGBP and EURCAD.
|
| EURAUD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.59174 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.59174
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.59136
1.59768
1.60514
Support:
1.58299
1.57767
Rationale
Thursday's 100-pip double-bottom candle off 1.57767 lifted price back above 1.59136, which makes a short here risky. The short-EUR theme is in EURGBP and EURCAD.
|
| EURNZD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.98633 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.98633
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.98599
1.99388
2.00309
Support:
1.97876
1.95740
1.95402
Rationale
A long here would fight the short-EUR theme. NZD weakness is better expressed through NZDCAD, AUDNZD and GBPNZD.
|
| GBPJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
211.057 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
211.057
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
211.275
211.985
Support:
209.969
209.566
209.116
Rationale
High-impact BOJ Policy Rate and Statement at 22:30 NY plus the Press Conference at 01:30 NY are inside the plan window. No directional plan.
|
| GBPCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.10173 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.10173
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.10471
1.10702
1.11044
Support:
1.10149
1.09704
1.09586
Rationale
A tight compression inside the October range with a flat MACD and balanced retail. Neither side has an edge.
|
| GBPAUD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.90470 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.90470
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.90405
1.91148
1.92288
Support:
1.90080
1.89388
1.88572
Rationale
Thursday's 183-pip swing left price mid-range, with retail split 49/51. Both GBP and AUD carry hawkish expectations, so there is no edge.
|
| GBPCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.87117 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.87117
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.87190
1.87855
1.88476
Support:
1.86514
1.86071
Rationale
A stop beyond 1.87855 leaves only 1.86071 at about 1.6:1, close to baseline after Thursday's recovery close. Long CAD is already in NZDCAD and EURCAD.
|
| AUDJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
110.807 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
110.807
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
111.128
111.305
111.561
Support:
110.767
110.358
109.485
Rationale
High-impact BOJ Policy Rate and Statement at 22:30 NY plus the Press Conference at 01:30 NY are inside the plan window. No directional plan.
|
| CADJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
112.797 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
112.797
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
112.921
113.105
115.419
Support:
112.585
112.129
111.483
Rationale
High-impact BOJ Policy Rate and Statement at 22:30 NY plus the Press Conference at 01:30 NY are inside the plan window. No directional plan despite the uptrend.
|
| NZDJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
88.798 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
88.798
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
88.956
89.073
89.620
Support:
88.695
88.523
88.120
Rationale
High-impact BOJ Policy Rate and Statement at 22:30 NY plus the Press Conference at 01:30 NY are inside the plan window. No directional plan.
|
| CHFJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
191.588 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
191.588
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
192.148
192.478
Support:
190.317
189.962
189.172
Rationale
High-impact BOJ Policy Rate and Statement at 22:30 NY plus the Press Conference at 01:30 NY are inside the plan window. No directional plan.
|
| AUDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.57843 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.57843
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.58163
0.58522
0.58825
Support:
0.57875
0.57739
0.57430
Rationale
Thursday reversed from 0.58522, closed near its low and has slipped under 0.57875 support. Long AUD is already in AUDUSD and AUDNZD.
|
| AUDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.98240 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.98240
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.98747
0.99095
0.99256
Support:
0.98212
0.98128
0.97906
Rationale
Range-bound with only a mild bearish tilt, and both legs are backed by hawkish central banks. Retail positioning is balanced.
|
| NZDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.46352 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.46352
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.46656
0.46828
0.47263
Support:
0.46406
0.46334
0.46262
Rationale
With a stop above 0.46656, no support below 0.46262 reaches 1:1. Short NZD is already in NZDCAD, AUDNZD and GBPNZD.
|
| CADCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.58878 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.58878
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.59074
0.59299
Support:
0.58900
0.58447
0.58280
Rationale
Thursday's rejection from 0.59299 pushed price back below 0.589 support, which leaves 0.59074 at only marginal odds. Long CAD is already in NZDCAD and EURCAD.
|